Forecast Discussion: We’ve had a few showers move through this morning in advance of a cold front. Rainfall was generally less than 0.10″ east of I-65, while those west of I-65 picked up anywhere from 0.50″ to 1″.
For now the showers have moved out, however, the cold front is still off to our west, currently draped from southeast Indiana to roughly Memphis, TN and through parts of western Kentucky. As the front pushes through this afternoon, more scattered showers will develop along the front. No worries of severe weather today, but a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out.
A very strong upper-level piece of energy will move into our region this evening which will enhance our rain chances along and even behind the front. Thus, despite the cold frontal passage this afternoon, rain chances will continue overnight. Showers will likely even become quite widespread across the area. We could see 0.25″ – 0.75+” of additional rainfall from this evening into Tuesday morning.
RAP simulated reflectivity valid for 9pm Monday.
A sharp temperature decline will also be noticed behind the front. Temperatures will fall into the 50s by this evening. Overnight, temperatures will fall through the 40s before bottoming out in the mid 30s. Winds will be quite breezy along and behind the front as well. Northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30+ mph are possible.
As a result of colder temperatures and lingering moisture, there could even be a few flakes flying come Tuesday morning as the precipitation ends. A harsh stubborn winter just won’t give in.
Everything calms down as we move into the midweek time frame. High pressure will works in way in by Tuesday afternoon/night which will allow skies to clear. It will also aid in bringing in cold temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the 40s and by Wednesday morning, lows are expected to drop into the upper 20s. A hard freeze is likely (A Freeze Watch as already been issued for Tues Night/Wed morning), thus precautions should be taken with any sensitive outdoor vegetation.
Surface analysis of NAM model valid for 4am Wednesday.
Southerly winds will return for Wednesday and Thursday with the “return flow” around the high pressure. This along with mostly sunny to sunny skies will allow temperatures to moderate once again. We won’t see 80s again, but at least a return to 60s is expected. The next rain-maker is poised to move in on Friday.
Daily Forecasts:
This Afternoon: Mostly Cloudy with a 50% chance of scattered showers. High near 70. Breezy with southerly winds from 10-20 mph through early afternoon becoming northwesterly at 10-20 mph this evening.
Tonight: 80% chance of rain; a few snow flakes could mix in toward morning. Additional rainfall totals will range from 0.25″ to 0.75″ by Tues morning. Windy and turning colder with temperatures falling through 40s, bottoming out near a low of 35. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30+ mph possible.
Tuesday: Cold with a high only around 48. Clouds and a 30% chance of rain/snow showers will start the day. Clouds will decrease throughout the day and skies will become mostly sunny by the afternoon. Still breezy with north winds at 10-20 mph.
Tuesday Night: Freeze Watch. Cold with a low near 28. Skies will be clear and winds will become calm. A hard freeze is likely thus precautions should be taken to protect and outdoor sensitive vegetation.
Wednesday: AM Freeze Watch. After a cold start, temperatures will warm to around 60 under mostly sunny skies. Southeast to south winds at 5-12 mph are expected.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear skies and again quite chilly with a low around 34. Generally light winds.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60s.