A convective snow band with impressive vertical velocities gave Bowling Green a quick coating of snow this morning, but precipitation has turned back into a wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow as boundary layer temperatures are still above freezing. This first batch of wintry weather from the leading shortwave will come to an end by 8:30 am or so this morning. The models have not captured this well at all. Continue reading
With all of the uncertainty between which model is right, which run, will it go east or west of the Appalachians, etc., I think it is important to step back and think about the synoptic pattern. The overall pattern idea of a two-part storm with frontogenetic cyclogenesis followed by phasing of the jet streams and subsequent deepening of the surface low still looks good. So why are the models trending colder when all winter the models have trended warmer as winter storms have approached the region? I’ll tell you why. Continue reading
The synoptic evolution of the weekend storm appears somewhat similar to the Monday storm. Cyclogenesis along a cold front will occur as the northern and southern streams of the jet stream phase over the eastern United States. This will lead to two separate bouts of wintry weather: the first will occur from a leading shortwave Thursday night into Friday while the second will occur as the surface low along the Gulf Coast intensifies late Friday night into Saturday. Unfortunately, it appears that Bowling Green and Nashville will be on the wrong side of both of these systems. Continue reading
The consensus of global forecast models develop a Nor’easter that will move up the East Coast this Friday. There will be accumulating snowfall on the NW edge of the precipitation shield somewhere over the TN valley. This means that places like Bowling Green and Nashville could see their first “big” snow of the year. Continue reading
The weather over the first 10 days of March promises to be very active over the Mid-South. The primary event will occur Monday-Wednesday of next week and will bring heavy rain, severe weather, and possibly heavy snow to the south-central United States. Right now, it appears as though KY/TN will miss out on the severe weather and heavy snow but will likely get in on the heavy rain. Continue reading
In my last post I described the typical scenario for how the Mid-South can receive accumulating snowfall from an Alberta Clipper. And wouldn’t you know, the current radar shows a clipper streaming in from the NW headed directly for the Bluegrass region. Continue reading
The NAM has been bullish on a Mid-South snow event for Friday afternoon-evening with a range of solutions from the extreme case of a 4-8″ snowstorm (Tuesday 18Z) to a rain followed by a couple of inches of snow (12Z Wednesday). On the other hand, every other operational model from the NGM to the AVN to the UKMET to the CMC to the European to the GFS show a light rain event that could possibly end as flurries. Remember those old commercials that said “Four out of five dentists agree that chewing Trident gum prevents cavities”? Would you go to the one dentist that doesn’t agree?? Me neither. Continue reading
NOTE: The original forecast map from NWS Louisville has been replaced, therefore all discussion in this posting was for the original map and not the one currently posted. See the 4:00 pm update at the bottom for more details.
The NWS office in Louisville originally backed off on snow amounts early this morning (2″ for Louisville and 1″ for Lexington) but have since drastically raised amounts. I think this is a very optimistic forecast. Recent trends in the NAM hint that the smart bet would be to take the “under” with regards to this forecast. Continue reading
A weak surface low supported by a positively tilted trough may bring an accumulating mix of wintry precipitation to the northern half of Kentucky Monday night into early Tuesday. The surface low is expected to track along the Ohio River, which will allow enough warm air to surge northward to bring rain into northern KY and southern IN during the day Tuesday, which will create a sloppy, wet mess. Continue reading
While the Mid-South deals with early season severe weather and a mostly snowless winter, the Upper Midwest will get yet another dose of blizzard conditions and life-threatening cold this weekend. Continue reading