WKU Meteorology

After a fantastic start to the week, rain and storms are set to roll into the area. The remainder of the day will by no means be a washout, but keep an eye on the weather as a few storms may move into our area later today. While there is a slight risk for severe weather in our area this afternoon and evening, the main threat exists tomorrow afternoon and into the overnight hours. The severe threat should exit the region Friday morning.

Today’s severe threat:

Increasing convection this afternoon will pose a risk for several storms to move in later this afternoon into the evening hours. The main threat will remain to the west, but a few isolated storms may sweep across the area. However, confidence is still rather low as to how far east storms will be able to fire due to weak forcing in the area. If storms do fire early enough, strong low level shear, decent CAPE and moisture would support supercells with an isolated tornado risk. Regardless, rain and a few thunderstorms will roll through later this evening and overnight tonight.

Here is the severe outlook for today:

The Storm Prediction Center has Bowling Green right on the edge of the 2% tornado probability and a 5% probability to the west. As you can see, the main threat remains to the west.

The current CAPE and Bulk Shear across the area are sufficient to support storm development.

CAPE is currently approaching 1000 J/kg in Bowling Green

The bulk shear is near 50 knots over Bowling Green.

The HRRR shows storms approaching the area late tonight. This is the simulated reflectivity at 10pm tonight.

If storms are able to fire in our region, they do have the potential to become severe. The main threat with any storm this evening would be damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Again, the threat for severe weather this evening is relatively low, but it still needs to be watched closely.

Thursday into Friday storm chances:

Tomorrow evening’s storm chances look better. Rich moisture and higher CAPE along with the increasing low level jet will provide the ingredients for a line of storms tomorrow evening. To the west across Arkansas, Missouri, and western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky, there is a moderate risk for severe storms. This is the area where the tornado threat is highest. The map below from the SPC shows tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. The red is the moderate risk while the yellow is the slight risk.

The moderate risk remains about 100 miles to the west of Bowling Green. Isolated supercells will develop across the western and central portions of the moderate risk area and later form a squall line that will impact our area. The main threat with the squall line will be damaging winds, hail, and an isolated embedded tornado.

Here are some severe storm parameters for tomorrow:

Both the NAM and GFS show roughly 1500 J/kg CAPE tomorrow around 6pm.

GFS CAPE

NAM CAPE

The NAM’s supercell composite is a composite of several severe storm parameters and shows the areas where supercell development is most favorable. You can see the greatest risk for supercells remains to the west. This is because a squall line will most likely be what impacts our region late Thursday into Friday. There is a slight chance for isolated storms to develop in our region late tomorrow afternoon, with the possiblity of becoming severe.

The Significant Tornado Composite is similar, but shows areas where tornado development is most favorable. The greatest threat is to the west, but an isolated tornado in our area is not out of question.

Here is a look at the simulated reflectivity from the NAM tomorrow around 6pm.

Here is the NAM reflectivity Friday morning. It shows the squall line coming through between 5am and 6am Friday morning.

Overall, a slight chance for severe weather exists in our area beginning tonight and again tomorrow afternoon and going through Friday morning. Storms tomorrow will likely move into the area later in the afternoon with the possibility of some being severe. The main threat will come from the squall line moving into the area late Thursday into early Friday morning. This line of storms will bring heavy rain, strong winds, possibly some large hail, and a chance for an isolated tornado. The squall line will most likely move through the area between 12am and 6am Friday morning.

Keep an eye on the weather as tomorrow progresses and make sure you have your weather radios out and ready to go before you go to bed Thursday night.

Weekly Outlook:

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 73. South wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Low around 60. South wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 56.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 61.

Sunday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 60.

If you have stepped outside today you know just how nice the weather is! The warm weather moved in yesterday and will last throughout the week ahead. Temperatures in the 70’s look like a good bet through Friday. The weekend will bring a slight cool down, but no “polar vortex” as you heard a few times this winter.

With the warmer weather comes a chance for thunderstorms which we will experience for much of the week. There is a chance for an isolated shower tonight, but all rain will likely be out of the area by sunrise. Tuesday will remain mostly sunny, but by Wednesday, thunderstorm chances increase. Thursday and Friday will most likely be accompanied by thunderstorms. Some of the storms could even be severe later in the week.

We may see some pretty heavy rain at times this week, especially if you find yourself under a thunderstorm. A general 2-3 inches by the end of the weekend looks likely for most areas in south central Kentucky. If we do receive several inches of rain, minor flooding would be a possibility. However, with it being rather dry the past couple weeks, major flooding is not likely. Keep in mind, If several thunderstorms happen to pass over the same area, rain totals would be higher which may lead to isolated flooding.

5 day rain prediction from the WPC shows nearly 1.25 inches of rain for Bowling Green

7 Day rain prediction from the WPC shows over 2 inches for Bowling Green

Aside from the potential for heavy rain, storms look likely later in the week. Several waves of showers and storms will roll through the area starting Wednesday night. The round coming through during the Friday/Saturday time frame is worth keeping an eye on as it has the highest severe potential.

A shortwave trough will become more negatively tilted as it heads east. It will encounter relatively large CAPE values across portions of the Midwest, stretching as far east as the western tip of Kentucky.

The day 4 outlook shows the zone of highest probability for storms due to most favorable conditions.

The conditions will become less favorable across south central Kentucky as the low level jet will most likely outrun the rich moisture axis and the CAPE will be lower to the east. However, severe potential still exists and needs to watched. A further analysis of our severe potential will be posted on Wednesday.

As for the remainder of the afternoon and tomorrow, get out and enjoy the weather if you can!

Weekly Outlook:

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. West wind 6 to 9 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the evening.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind 7 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 60.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

Well, its finally warm again. Winter’s last hurrah (let’s all hope) certainly didn’t go unnoticed earlier in the week with scattered snow showers Monday Night into Tuesday morning. Moreover, it was very chilly as well. Highs on Tuesday struggled to break 40 and our low Wednesday morning came in at only 19. Only a stones throw away from the record of 14 set back in 1955. In fact a couple of nearby mesonet stations (both Allen & Logan Counties) dropped as low as 16.

Snow falls on the campus of WKU on Tuesday, March 25, 2014.

Out late season snowfall provided some interesting facts concerning the winter that was. All statistics courtesy of Dr. Gregory Goodrich.

1. Snow on Tuesday (officially we received 0.3″) made for a few Our snow season went from November 25 (1.1”) to March 25 (0.3”) this year, which gives us a 120 day snow season (normal first/last dates are December 24 to February 24 or 62 days). This ranks as the 13^th longest snow season since 1900 and is the longest snow season since 1994. The longest snow season was in 1914 with 152 days (first snow: 10/20; last snow: 3/21)!
2. This snow season had the 2^nd highest number of days with measurable (>0.1”) snowfall at 16 days. Tied with 1978 and 1996; 1895 ranks 1st with 18 days. So even though we didn’t get a lot of snow, we still had snow on a lot of days.

Moving on however… spring has sprung yet again. Temperatures warmed back into the 60s yesterday and we’ll be in the 60s again today. The weekend will coincide with a minor cool down before we move into a stretch of 70 degree weather next week.

Obviously, we have some active weather over the last 24 hours. Most noteworthy were the high winds Thursday evening. The peak gust in the area was reported at the BWG airport at 50 mph. At least some minor damage was reported when a tree limb fell onto a power line in BG. Moderate to heavy rainfall also fell with the airport picking up over 0.3″.

The system that brought this rain and wind is at least somewhat still with us today. While the main area of low pressure has pushed eastward, the dragging cold front remains over south-central Kentucky. This could lead to a few showers in the area today but the most of the rain will hold off until tonight, especially after midnight.

Tonight’s rainfall will come as an area of low pressure develops along the front in Texas and moves northeastward, passing just to our south. As a result scattered showers will again spread across the area. Rainfall totals will likely be more impressive than they were yesterday evening however. In general 0.50″-1″ of rain is expected and some locations could see locally more.

Weather Prediction Center’s forecast precipitation totals over the next 2 days.

Note that there could very well be a few rumbles of thunder as well, however nothing severe is expected in our area.

Scattered showers will continue right into Saturday morning as we receive moisture wrapping around the backside of the low pressure system. Being in this location, temperatures will also be cool, especially so with clouds and rain. While most of the rain should move out by noon, clouds will linger through much of the evening with clearing taking place overnight.

By Sunday, all the active weather will have pushed well to our east as it is replaced with an area of high pressure. This will lead to sunny skies on Sunday, however temperatures will remain just a tad on the cool side.

This surface model and analysis is valid 7pm Sunday. Note High pressure in control Sunday as well as the warmer temperatures over the Plains as a result of southerly winds. That warmer air will push east early next week.

As we move into early next week however, southerly winds will usher in much warmer temperatures which should push us into the 70s by Monday with that trend likely to continue into the week. The next big rainmaker currently seems as though it will hold off until after Wednesday and thus the first half of the week will certainly make you want to get outside and enjoy welcomed spring-like weather.

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of a few showers. High near 67. Winds will be 5-12 mph from the south this morning, switching to the southeast by this afternoon.

Tonight: Rain likely, especially after midnight. Low around 50. Easterly winds from 3-10 mph. Total rainfall (including Saturday morning) will range from 0.50″-1″ with locally 1″+ possible.

Saturday: Scattered showers likely before noon. Chilly with a high only around 52. Northwest to northerly winds from 8-18 mph with gusts 20+ mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear and cool with a low around 31. There could be some areas of patchy fog develop around morning with the potential for areas of freezing fog. Winds will be light to calm.

Sunday: Sunny with a high around 60. Light northerly winds.

Sunday Night: Clear with a low near 37. Southeasterly winds at 3-10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny with a high in the low 70s.

Discussion: Despite what the calendar states …Spring that is… winter will certainly be making its presence felt this week. A cold front pushed through over the weekend and behind it a cold area of high pressure has settled in across the Ohio Valley. This has set up days like today and yesterday where we have sunny skies but cool temperatures. This includes the overnight hours… we plunged to a low of 26 last night in Bowling Green for example.

High pressure will break down enough to allow a clipper system to move into the region overnight tonight. As a result clouds will be on the increase late today and there is a chance for isolated rain and snow showers tonight. Yes, I said snow showers. Don’t worry, no accumulation is expected if anything fall as all.

Simulated reflectivity from the NAM model indicates the chance of scattered precipitation tonight… precip will be in the form of rain and snow showers.

This area of disturbed weather will continue right into Tuesday and thus it will be a less than ideal day. A few scattered snow showers or flurries are possible but otherwise it will be cloudy and cold with a high only in the low 40s. That is about 20 degrees below average for this time of year. And if that’s not cold then the low by Wednesday morning surely is. Skies will clear overnight Tuesday allowing temperatures to plummet near 20. Brrr!

The NAM model valid Wednesday morning indicates high pressure directly over south-central Kentucky. This means clear skies and calm winds which will lead to cold temperatures

As for the rest of Wednesday, skies should be generally sunny with yet another area of high pressure taking control. Still chilly despite the sun however with below average temperatures in the 40s.

By Thursday, the high pressure will have pushed well to our east as a low pressure and cold front approach our area from the west. This will place Kentucky in between the 2 systems allowing for gusty but warm southerly winds to occur. Thankfully this means Thursday we should see a return to the 60s for highs.

The approaching system will bring the chance for rain showers Thursday afternoon/evening into the overnight hours. Still some uncertainly with the timing of this system however, so some forecast fluctuation is likely.

Daily Forecasts:

Today: Mostly sunny but cool with a high near 49. Light northerly winds.

Tonight: 30% chance of light rain and snow showers. No accumulation with total precipitation less than 0.10″. Low around 30 with light northerly winds up to 8 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of a light snow shower or a few flurries. Chilly with a high only around 43. Breezy with winds from the northwest at 8-18 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clearing skies with winds decreasing becoming calm. Cold with a low near 20.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies with a few clouds late. Fairly light winds becoming southeasterly. High near 47.

Wednesday Night: Clouds will increase becoming cloudy by Thursday morning. Winds will be from the south at 4-12 mph.

Thursday: 30% chance of rain with otherwise cloudy skies. High near 61.

Thursday Night: 50% chance of rain with otherwise cloudy skies. Low in the low 50s.

As the stratus deck above us continues to dissipate and move to our northeast we should see temperatures start to rise, although today’s high temperature forecast seems it will be a little too high. Tonight the low will creep down to the mid-40s. A low-pressure system is settling into the Great Lakes Region and with that a cold front will swing through early Wednesday but little moisture has been advected into the area, so expect just scattered showers. As the low approaches pressure-gradients will tighten so wind speeds will increase. Expect winds to sustain around 10-15mph and gust to reach up to 35mph. Temperatures will reach the mid- to upper-50’s wednesday and settle back down to the mid-30’s wednesday night.

As the flow switches from the ridge/trough pattern into a more zonal flow, temperatures will begin to rise Thursday and Friday. Thursday we should see sunny skies with a high around 62 and a low that night around 40, under mostly clear skies. Friday is panning out to be a beautiful day as well with mostly sunny skies and a high in the lower 70’s.

However, these warm temperatures don’t look to last too long as the 6-10 probability outlook from the Climate Prediction center for temperatures is hinting at the same ridge trough pattern that we’ve seem to be stuck in. This is not a guarantee for cold weather next week but instead the probability that we will see temperatures that are below normal. Weekly Outlook:

Tonight: Low around 47, with a 20% chance of precipitation. Winds with be out of the south at 9-15mph.

Wednesday: High near 58, with a 30% chance of precipitation. South winds will switch to west in the afternoon as the sky gradually clears. Gust could reach 30mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 34. Winds will be out of the west at 5-10mph.

Thursday: Sunny skies, high near 62. Winds will be out of the west at 5-10mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear skies, low nearing 39.

Friday: Sunny skies, high near 72.

Friday night: Low near 48, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The cold air has come rushing back in thanks to a cold front passing through the region and the winds will remain gusty for much of the day. Our high temperature today was actually overnight, therefore the temperature will continue to drop as we head throughout the day. Low 40s by the 5 o clock hour look likely with an isolated shower possible between 3pm and 6pm.

Here is a quick look at the region. Snow stretches from far western Illinois through the Northeast with rain and storms on the southern half. The cold front is draped right over central Kentucky and will continue to slide east as the day progresses.

Most of the area saw quick hitting heavy rain showers this morning and some wind gusts upwards of 40mph.  Our official rain total from these storms at the Mesonet was 0.1 inches.

So what can we look forward to tomorrow?

The temperature when you wake up tomorrow morning will be in the lower 20s. A few areas north and east of Bowling Green may even dip into the upper teens. 

We will warm up some tomorrow, but nothing like what we saw Tuesday. However, it will be a much nicer day tomorrow than today as the sun will be out and we will reach a high around 46 degrees.

Friday will be rather lovely with a high in the low 60s and the sun shining. But another front will move through the area and bring rain and slightly cooler weather with it for your weekend.

Weekly Outlook:

Today: Isolated showers between 3pm and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 40 by 5pm. Breezy, with a northwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Northwest wind 7 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 46. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 33. South wind around 6 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Southwest wind 8 to 17 mph.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 56.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.

Many people were thrilled to see the snow vanish this weekend and warm air begin to filter back in to the area. We may even see temperatures get close to 70 tomorrow and Tuesday. Although winter is slowly coming to a close, we’re not out of the woods yet.

Here is the temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center through next weekend:

Here is the two week outlook:

Overall temperature looks to be on the chilly side. Keep in mind, the outlook shows the probability of temperatures not meeting the average daily temp. With average temperatures being in the low to mid 50s, highs in the upper 40s to near 50 will still be considered below average.

With that being said, I believe this week looks rather warm and even above average overall. A cold front will drop the temperatures to the mid 40s for Thursday, but they will rebound nicely into the upper 50s by Friday. So why is this two week outlook showing such a high probability for below average temperatures? The GFS is showing a trough bringing cold air trying to dive into the region after next weekend. There is a possibility that we see high temperatures back in the 40s for part of next week.

Next Tuesday morning:

Next Wednesday morning:

In the short term:

The remainder of your Sunday looks to be nice and sunny. Monday and Tuesday will be the picks of the week with high temperatures near 70 on Monday and possibly reaching 71 on Tuesday. Rain will move into the area Tuesday night and bring with it slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday.

We will see a quick shot of cold air swing through Wednesday night. Thursday morning lows will be in the low to mid 20s.

Weekly Outlook:

This afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 51. West wind around 6 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 71. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 31.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.

Forecast Discussion: 4 days later… the snow and ice remains! Yup, we just can’t seem to shake off old man winter who just continues to hang around. As a result of the ice/snow cover, temperatures have struggled to warm up, finally making it to the mid-40s today! Temperatures will continue to “spring forward” as that warming trend should continue right into the weekend. Maybe, just maybe, we’ll end up cracking the 60 degree mark before long. By the way… our clocks are also set to “spring forward” Saturday night.

High pressure has been the name of the game the last few days. It settled in over the Ohio Valley and has been controlling our weather giving us, in general, nice sunny days. While that high pressure system is moving out, it will just be replaced with more of the same. By this weekend, we’ll find ourselves between two areas of high pressure… one located along the Gulf coast and another over the upper-Midwest. With high pressure generally in control and no major weather systems coming through, we’ll see generally sunny skies through Saturday morning with ever so slowly moderating temperatures.

By Friday, the surface forecast from the WPC clearly indicates an area of High Pressure over the south which will bring south-central KY calm sunny weather.

It looks like by Saturday afternoon however, an upper-level impulse or disturbance may translate to some areas of clouds and then overnight some areas of scattered precipitation here in south-central Kentucky. Precipitation should be in the form of just plain old rain. Overall though, the entire system isn’t much to write home about and total precipitation should be light, generally under 0.25″. A few showers and at least some clouds may try to linger around into Sunday morning. Things should then clear out for a mostly sunny Sunday afternoon.

This model (NAM) indicates possible areas of scattered showers overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. This particular image is valid for 4am.

Then, more quite weather and warmer temperatures for Monday and Tuesday before the next storm system moves in which is currently being hinted as arriving Tuesday afternoon.

Daily Forecast:

Tonight: Partly Cloudy skies and cool with a low near 28. Areas of fog/freezing fog are possible toward morning. Light to calm winds.

Friday: Sunny and a little warmer with a high near 53. Light and variable winds.

Friday Night: Clear skies with a low near 32. Again, some areas of fog are possible by morning. Light to calm winds.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies to start the day with increasing clouds. Becoming mostly cloudy by the late afternoon/evening. Warmer still with a high near 59. Southwest winds at 5 -10 mph.

Saturday Night: 40% chance of a few showers. Otherwise cloudy with a low near 40. West to northwest winds at 3 -8 mph.

Sunday: 30% chance of showers early. Otherwise, clearing skies to become mostly sunny by the afternoon. High near 53.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear skies continue overnight as temperatures fall into the upper 30s.

The winter storm which was poised to impact the region Sunday evening certainly did indeed make its presence known. Fortunately, the precipitation predominately fell as sleet as apposed to freezing rain. This kept the glaze of ice on trees and powerlines to a minimum and as a result downed tree limbs and powerlines were not an issue here. Some down into northern Tennessee, just to our south, weren’t so lucky. See the picture below from Cheatham County, TN.

Here is another photo showing the damage in downtown Ashland City. Photo taken by Vicki Lovell Presson #tnwx #chcwx pic.twitter.com/tyerTJP3r9

— CheathamSevereWx (@CheathmSevereWx) March 3, 2014

All told, Bowling Green officially received 0.1″ of ice glaze and then 4.8″ of snow/sleet combined. What is interesting about that total is that 2-3″ of this total was sleet. That much sleet is fairly uncommon. These totals created an absolute mess on the roadways and hundreds of motorist had to be assisted is the Bowling Green area alone. After a low temperature of 12 this morning, many roads remain ice/snow covered today, thus creating hazardous driving conditions.

This was the scene at WKU on Normal Drive on Monday afternoon. The car seen on driving the hill is actually backing down it because they could not make it up.

Road conditions should begin to clear more rapidly this afternoon however thanks to improved weather conditions, though temperatures will still struggle to break the freezing mark. High pressure sits directly over the Ohio Valley currently bringing us the relatively calm weather conditions. With generally sunny skies the next couple days as a result, temperatures will slowly moderate.

Tuesday forecast from the Weather Prediction Center… notice the “H” indicating high pressure over the Ohio Valley.

A disturbance will slide east into our area Wednesday Night into Thursday which should bring about some enhanced cloudiness and we’ll watch the system to see if any rain (and maybe some sleet?) will push into our area. Right now, the system should pass far enough to our south so that south-central Kentucky stays dry.

Daily Forecast:

Today: Partly sunny with a high near 31. Light winds out of the north to northeast.

Tonight: Cold and mostly clear with lows around 17. Light to calm winds.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer with a high around 41. Winds from 3-10 mph out of the northeast.

Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds with a low around 28. Light winds out of the north to northeast.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High near 46. Light winds out of the north to northeast.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a low around 33.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all of south-central Kentucky until 12pm Monday.

Heavy rain has fallen throughout south-central Kentucky today, some areas even had minor flooding. As expected, temperatures have now dipped below freezing and precipitation has now transitioned to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain.

What is known as isentropic lifting is one of the prime lifting mechanisms leading to our extended period of precipitation. There is also a wave of low pressure moving northeast along a cold frontal boundary and an upper level low which will contribute to the precipitation.

Radar analysis at ~9pm Sunday

Precipitation will first be a continued mixture of sleet and freezing rain until a transition to snow during the overnight/early Monday morning hours. Precipitation may be heavy at times, possibly accompanied with thunder and lightning. Temperatures will fall to near 20 by Monday morning.

This looks to be a significant winter storm for all of south-central Kentucky. Ice accretion from freezing rain could range from 0.25″-0.75″ and sleet/snow totals will generally be in the 3-6 inch range though some areas could receive more, especially north along the Western Kentucky Parkway.

Forecast outlook from the NWS Louisville

Significant impacts from the storm are expected which could include downed tree limbs and power lines, power outages, and very hazardous travel conditions. In fact, numerous slick roads have already been reported as of 8:30 pm Sunday evening.

Snow will taper off around midday for most of the mid-south with mostly cloudy skies and a few scattered flurries remaining through the afternoon. It will stay cold with a daytime high of only 27.

Tuesday night, skies will begin to clear allowing temperatures to dive into the single digits.

I’ll have more on the rest of the week’s outlook tomorrow after the passage of the winter storm. Stay safe everyone.