The weather pattern has not changed since my last post (September blowtorch) so I haven’t felt compelled to comment. However, with September now in the books as one of the top 15 warmest on record in many locations in the Mid-South (including 3rd warmest in Louisville), it is time to look forward to October.
Computer models suggest that the warm and dry pattern in the eastern U.S. will continue through at least mid-month. The storm progged for this weekend however, could give parts of the Mid-South a bit of drought relief. The current synoptic pattern shows a weak trough in the west and a weak ridge in the east with a strong Pacific jet poised to once again amplify the trough/ridge pattern by mid-week.
The models have consistently shown shortwave energy carving out a trough over the northern Rockies by late-week, which will allow Gulf moisture to stream northward over the eastern conus. The strong dynamics associated with this system combined with ample Gulf moisture and a strong temperature gradient should trigger severe weather ahead of the front over the weekend.
While there is good model consensus from the ensemble solutions aloft, the storm is too far away to get specific on where the heaviest precipitation will occur or even if the Mid-South will get substantial rain. There is also some concern with a potential tropical storm in the Gulf during this timeframe which could influence the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
**Update for 4:11 pm Monday: I forgot to mention that this storm will also produce a temporary cooldown for early next week after the passage of the cold front. If the storm track is close to what I described above, high temperatures early next week should stay in the low to middle 60s for a day or two!!