Normal and dry instead of hot and dry

A pattern change is coming to the Mid-South but unfortunately it will not ease the severe to exceptional drought conditions that have persisted throughout the summer and fall.

The cut-off storm and cold front that was mentioned here in my last post will put an end to the near-record heat that has persisted through the end of the first week of October. Precipitation Monday night/early Tuesday will be limited with this front since there will not be any Gulf moisture (see 850 mb flow). The front will usher in a cooler air mass that will lower high temperatures to near normal for this time of year (lower 70s). The upper level storm will be slow to depart which will keep heights low across the eastern half of the United States and help to build a ridge across the central Plains. By the middle of October, the models suggest that an Omega Block will build across the central Plains, which will help to keep temperatures across the Mid-South in that near normal range. Unfortunately, this type of pattern does not result in much in the way of precipitation.

For the long term, model guidance is showing a large amount of uncertainty as to whether or not the eastern ridge will build and bring a return of very warm late October temperatures.

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