Everything looks good for this storm from my previous post. As expected, the warm Gulf air mass and the SE ridge successfully advanced the line of scrimmage and pushed the storm track north and west, which will keep south-central KY mainly in the rain. (more…)
Archive for December, 2007
Storm on track; top ten wet December?
Friday, December 14th, 2007Snowstorm possibilities for the Mid-South
Tuesday, December 11th, 2007Just a few days after record warmth (75 degrees!!) the models are pointing to a potential weekend snowstorm for the Mid-South this weekend. With the storm over 100 hrs away, there is no point trying to speculate on snow amounts or even which models (and which model runs) are the most accurate, since that often turns into wishcasting. Rather, at this point I will discuss the main players on the field and discuss the likely evolution of the synoptic features. (more…)
SE ridge to keep Mid-South warm through mid-month
Wednesday, December 5th, 2007Shawn Crowe writes “Medium range models are keeping us above freezing until at least the 17th of the month now. It’s not looking good for snowfall chances in KY this month, as this zonal pattern seems to be stubborn. What is your take Dr. Goodrich?”
Today’s cold front and flurries aside, the next week to ten days appears to reflect the pattern change I alluded to in my last blog posting where I mentioned a transition to a more zonal flow sometime around 12/10-15. The actual pattern change will occur a couple of days early and by this coming weekend the Mid-South will be >10F above normal for this time of year. (more…)