On Sunday I mentioned that “Mid 90 possible for later this week“. My forecast read…
I foresee highs in south-central Kentucky and the Nashville metro area as high as 92-96 for Thursday and 94-98 for Friday with lows in the lower 70s; take a couple of degrees off those highs each day for the Bluegrass. The limiting factor in reaching those highs (especially Friday) will be the interaction of a cut-off low progged to be located off the mid-atlantic coast with the cold front.
Well, the upper level low will be further out to sea which means we will experience a potentially historic one-day heat wave.
The synoptic outlook for Thursday afternoon shows a storm over the northern plains (surprise, surprise) with a sharp ridge centered over the mid-south. Hot, gusty winds from the south will push temperatures in south-central Kentucky Thursday into the 94-98 range (ensemble MOS numbers range from 95-99!!). I would expect the I-64 corridor to see 92-96. With the upper level low further out to sea, the cold front will move more quickly across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-South Friday, which will cap highs to the upper 80s with scattered thunderstorms. The SPC has the mid-south in a risk area for severe weather Friday.
It’s worth repeating, but as I mentioned Sunday, prior to June 10th, there has not been a maximum temperature >95 in Bowling Green since 1995 and it has only happened eight times since 1950 (although it did happen 15 times in the 1930s alone). It hasn’t happened in Louisville or Lexington since 1953.
A weak short wave will spin up into the region Monday which will bring us the next opportunity for much needed rainfall. Later next week, a high amplitude ridge will extend from the Ohio Valley into James Bay. With a ridge axis this far north, it is possible that south-central KY could get into some deep tropical moisture with some scattered showers and thunderstorms.