On Sunday I mentioned that “Mid 90 possible for later this week“. My forecast read…
I foresee highs in south-central Kentucky and the Nashville metro area as high as 92-96 for Thursday and 94-98 for Friday with lows in the lower 70s; take a couple of degrees off those highs each day for the Bluegrass. The limiting factor in reaching those highs (especially Friday) will be the interaction of a cut-off low progged to be located off the mid-atlantic coast with the cold front.
Well, the upper level low will be further out to sea which means we will experience a potentially historic one-day heat wave.
The synoptic outlook for Thursday afternoon shows a storm over the northern plains (surprise, surprise) with a sharp ridge centered over the mid-south. Hot, gusty winds from the south will push temperatures in south-central Kentucky Thursday into the 94-98 range (ensemble MOS numbers range from 95-99!!). I would expect the I-64 corridor to see 92-96. With the upper level low further out to sea, the cold front will move more quickly across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-South Friday, which will cap highs to the upper 80s with scattered thunderstorms. The SPC has the mid-south in a risk area for severe weather Friday.
It’s worth repeating, but as I mentioned Sunday, prior to June 10th, there has not been a maximum temperature >95 in Bowling Green since 1995 and it has only happened eight times since 1950 (although it did happen 15 times in the 1930s alone). It hasnâ€™t happened in Louisville or Lexington since 1953.
A weak short wave will spin up into the region Monday which will bring us the next opportunity for much needed rainfall. Later next week, a high amplitude ridge will extend from the Ohio Valley into James Bay. With a ridge axis this far north, it is possible that south-central KY could get into some deep tropical moisture with some scattered showers and thunderstorms.