Record breaking August a certainty

Back in early August I posted here that August 2007 could potentially break all-time heat records (dating back over 100 years) in the Mid-South. And with only eight days to go in the month, it is certain that the all-times records will not just be broken but smashed in many locations.

My “record watch” post shows that Louisville, Nashville, and Bowling Green are all well above pace to set all-time records for mean temperature. Numerous records have already been broken for number of 100+ degree days, 75+ degree days, and for various streaks of hot days.

Bowling Green currently has had 20 straight days of 95 degrees or higher (thru 8/23). This is tied for second all-time (with 1932) and is only 3 behind the longest streak of 23 days set from 6/10-7/2 1894. The next two days will be much hotter than 95 but Sunday has a predicted high of only 92, which could break the streak. It won’t surprise me that if Bowling Green doesn’t get any rain from the weekend cold front that we will hit 95 and continue the streak.

Where do we go from here?
The GFS model has tried to bring cooler air into the mid-south during the day 6-10 period for the past few days but I don’t think that will happen.
Patterns like this tend to persist until something fundamentally alters the longwave pattern of the jet stream. It will probably take a hurricane recurvature of some sort for this to occur. Since there is nothing interesting to speak of in the tropical Atlantic right now, I expect the hot and dry pattern to continue until further notice. The GFS operational model does not have support from most of the other ensemble members or the ECMWF

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