Cold but dry start to November likely

The model and teleconnection data are suggesting that the first ten days of November will feature below normal temperatures with at least one and possibly two arctic air masses over the eastern United States.

As I mentioned a few days ago, both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) are expected to be in the negative phase during the first few days of November. This pattern is associated with a ridge over the eastern Pacific and over Greenland which then supports a trough over eastern Canada as shown by the long-range GFS. This synoptic setup allows for the discharge of arctic air into the eastern United States, which is supported by both the operational GFS as well as many of the ensembles. While any particular model run past 180 hrs cannot be taken as reality, the trend among the long range models does support the idea that a series of cold, arctic highs will descend from Canada starting a few days into November and continuing through at the least the 10th. Right now, the pattern supports the core of the arctic air heading directly for New England, which means the Mid-South will only get side-swiped by these arctic highs.

Keeping in mind that normals for early November are 62/41, I think we can expect highs in the low to middle 50s with lows around/below freezing when those air masses drop down, based on the current pattern. If we do get a direct arctic discharge or if a polar vortex descends over the Great Lakes (like in October 12-15, 2006) we can expect highs in the middle/upper 40s and lows in the middle 20s for a couple of days.

Regardless of the temperature outlook, I don’t see any major precipitation opportunities through at least 11/10.

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