Severe weather possible Wednesday; brief long-range outlook

As is often the case with winter storms, I have not paid too much attention to the likelihood of severe weather with this front. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the Mid-South in a slight risk area for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday.

You can read the SPC discussion here and also get the thoughts from the NWS office in Louisville here. Since this is a positively tilted trough, the main jet dynamics will be on the cold side of the cold front, so the primary mechanism for severe weather will come from instability. Expect supercells to break out to our southwest in the early part of the afternoon and then for these storms to focus into squall lines later in the day.

For the longer range, the Friday-Sunday period looks to be cold and dry although some flurries may occur early on Friday, especially in the Bluegrass. Late Sunday into Monday a shortwave will eject from the Southwestern U.S. that will bring more rain to the Mid-South. No frozen precipitation is expected due to the split flow pattern. Beyond that, the long-range models hint at another western trough that could eventually bring another cold front (and more rain) to the region during the first couple of days of December. There is strong agreement with the GFS ensembles as well as with the European models. The EPO looks to be negative through early December, which will keep our pattern stormy and active.

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