See-saw pattern ahead

See-saw pattern for the next two weeks. Winter should return prior to mid-month after a week-long mild-rainy period.

The evolution of the next cold outbreak looks very similar to our recent cold snap as an Alberta clipper is expected to bring the first cP airmass to the central U.S. late next week. Lagging shortwave energy will eject out of the Southwest a day or two later and reinforce the Midwest trough and cold air. This energy should then lead to cyclogenesis somewhere near the Gulf Coast with another Nor’easter around mid-month. Both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles support this pattern evolution.

Yet again, it appears that snow will manage to avoid the Mid-South although there is the chance for some flurries/snowshowers as the trough migrates eastward. The good news is that precipitation should continue to be above normal in this type of pattern for the Mid-South (primarily in the warm part of the see-saw) which will help to make up for the summer rainfall deficits. The La Nina is fairly robust and will continue to dominate the pattern through the rest of the winter. As long as the combination of La Nina/Southeast Ridge is the dominant synoptic factor, I do not foresee any major snows for the Mid-South this winter.

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