– Two pattern changes next week. The first will be the establishment of a ridge over the east due a monster west coast trough from Monday until the end of the week the second change will be when a sharp cold front brings a less amplified version of this trough east when that happens will be a BIG factor in the Halloween weather forecast.
A: Early next week should be a few nice days in a row for the mid south with a mix of sun and clouds and highs well into the 60’s.
B: A low pressure system associated with a week front will not dent the ridge much but could bring up some gulf moisture for showers by mid week.
C: Models really begin to differ by late week.
– The gfs brings a sharp cold-front through Thursday night with thunderstorms with a gusty day Friday and falling temps perhaps ending the rain showers as snow flurries by Halloween.
– The Euro and Canadian weather models dig this trough and slow it down a bit more in the west allowing for our region to stay in warm sector with southerly flow perhaps till Halloween.
– For now my thinking is for a blend of these two solutions let’s say a Friday frontal passage followed by a cool Halloween. See you all again in a few weeks.