Manitoba Mauler on track for Sunday/Monday

The latest model runs of the GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all show a Manitoba Mauler (the mean, nasty cousin of the Alberta Clipper) poised to bring more snow to the Mid-South late this weekend. Both the CMC and ECMWF are further south with the track of the vort max (over TN) compared to the GFS (over KY) which will strongly influence snow amounts.

A good rule of thumb for mauler storms with such a potent shortwave is for 3-6″ of snow¬†50-100 miles N of the vort max with snow amonts of 6″+ 100-250 miles N of the vort max. Only 1-3″ can be expected <50 miles N of the vort max with around an inch just south of the vort max. Both the ECMWF and CMC are more bullish than the GFS with QPF due to the more southerly track. I expect QPF amounts will increase on the GFS as the storm gets inside the 84 hr AVN window.

At the beginning of January I posted about the dangers of Alberta Clippers and southern Kentucky and how they tend to underperform snow-wise here. Manitoba mauler storms are different, since they dive more meridionally than clipper systems and tend to go farther south than clipper systems.

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