round 1 rains more than expected, increased severe threat close to region

This is a  special saturday morning update. The cluster of storms I’m labeling round 1 has moved further south than anticipated stalling in Tenn. to the north of this thunderstorm complex heavy rain showers have been training over southern Kentucky resulting in widespread 1-2 inch totals already. This thunderstorm complex could lift back to the north this afternoon if this is the case more excessive rainfall is likely. thunderstorms may be severe as well with gusty winds and small hail and isolated tornadoes. The storm prediction center is highlighting areas just to southwest for another high risk event/ severe outbreak where instabilty values are more favorbale for severe weather. Over our region I’m expecting a similar outcome to last week that these storms will weaken below severe limits as they move toward Bowling green where the atmosphere is more stable.

looking at the new model guidance the nam initialized poorly leaning future forecasts in the direction of the gfs today.  I’m still expecting up to an additional  inch through tonight with another 2-4 inches of rain tomorrow.

forecaster: MWG

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