1. A quick reflection on the summer forecast posted here was one that indicated August should the hottest month compared to normal the counter was the cfs climate model featured in the last post on the winter preview which has a cold august for the region. Well it looks like the model will be adjusting on the go again at least to start the month toward the warm side of average. Just a note there not to take the model’s forecast into winter as set in stone.
2. A large ridge of high pressure building east and a southerly flow will allow for the transport of much warmer and more humid air into the region with the peak being on Wednesday before the next front moves into the region. Monday and Tuesday should be dry with highs in the low 90’s Monday and mid to upper 90’s Tuesday and Wednesday. Let’s look at the models forecasting of temps we’ll take a look at the gfs and ecmwf (euro) along with my thinking which takes into account the amount of soil moisture and vegetation in place which is a critical component of summertime temp forecasts. Right now it appears that max heat index values will range around 100 Monday and 105 for Tuesday and Wednesday. Allow extra caution if outdoors.
Monday euro 92 gfs raw 97 Tuesday euro 96 gfs raw 99 Wednesday euro 97 gfs raw 104
I’m much closer to the euro this week with a temp forecast. If we were in a drought say August 07 then the gfs would likely be much closer to correct.
3. isolated storm chances begin Wednesday with the next front, as the front draws closer storm coverage should increase for Thursday and Friday with slightly cooler temps.