Tropical update

1. We have an area of low pressure near the Louisiana coast which will move northward over the next few days. With this some deeper tropical moisture will move around the edge of the ridge establishing it’s self in the upper lakes. As a result this tropical moisture appears deeper than earlier thought leading to addition of shower and storm chances for Sunday afternoon through Monday. Coverage should be around 50% in our region on the far western edge of the ridge’s influence.

2. Hurricane Danielle is turning way out to sea getting caught in a atlantic trough, let’s say bye now.  NHC maps.

3. The next storm is Earl. An upper level ridge is forming between Danielle and Earl which will promote a westward movement for the next few days before a turn to the northwest toward the southeast United States. Most of the modeling is now picking up on a trough toward the next of next week coming into the eastern US to turn Earl back out to sea. However I’m a bit skeptical of this solution because of known gfs biases to recurve hurricanes out to sea to quick and be to fast with approaching weather systems, the approaching trough. It should be noted however the ECMWF shows a very similar solution as well. Right now my personal thoughts are the ridge over the eastern United States doesn’t break  down as much as current models indicate fitting in with recent southern and western trends with the track of Earl. Thus I have my forecast track which is on the southern and western edge of NHC’s track now. However the US east coast is still spared a hit from Earl.

the black line is my track.

4. Fiona should develop soon ( red hatched area on NHC site) and track further southwest than Earl and the next wave already coming off the western african coast will likely be Gaston as the cape verde season is underway.

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