Will 2010 be a white christmas???

That is the question on the minds of many kids awaiting Christmas morning. A white christmas always adds a little extra for the holiday season and the pressure is on meteorologists to provide. Annually snowfall is only about 10 inches in Bowling green for the official white Christmas an inch of snow needs to be on the ground Christmas day, odds are usually slim around 10%. However this year are odds are much greater. We continue to be a pattern dominated by the  – AO which is more of a short term teleconnection which offsets the expected warm and mild winter that is typical from la-ninas, thus one month in the winter forecast is a bust. Let’s lay the groundwork for the Christmas weather.

We’ll have reinforcing colder air streaming into the region Thursday with low pressure moving into the southern Rockies. This reinforcing shot of cold air will keep highs only in the 30’s.  After a clouds and drizzle/ flurries Wednesday, Thursday should see some sun.

Christmas eve the low pressure moves out into the plains with one piece going north the other staying south. At this time is the key to our white Christmas chances . Does the southern energy move slower into the plains and dig back this would mean a later phasing and storm development to our east, the ECMWF has been pretty steady on this. Or does the energy phase faster near the Tennessee valley which is what the gfs has also being steady with this solution. The stronger GFS solution would yield snow perhaps starting out quickly as rain Christmas Eve afternoon then quickly changing to snow for Christmas eve into day with several inches of snow. The ECMWF would yield some light snows for Christmas eve and day with a lighter accumulations.

white-o-meter for a white Christmas for Bowling Green

White-o-meter: 9/10

even the drier ECMWF has an inch by days end. Arctic air will follow behind the storm.  There should be a higher forecast confidence as this system enters the upper air network tomorrow. An official forecast will be posted sometime late Wednesday night or Thursday. Be advised travel for Christmas eve and Christmas day will likely be impacted by snow.

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