Sorry for the delay with getting an updated forecast out. I’ve known since this morning this is going to far west for snow. In my last post i discussed the westward model trend well the upper low is slightly stronger meaning a slightly more westward track and the main 1-3 snow band now goes through west ky. we are seeing warmer air ahead of the low and light rain which should change to some light snow showers for Saturday.
I’ll update tomorrow on a system Monday which would normally generate hype but is the middle child in this series of storms. I’m watching for low pressure to develop fairly quickly over TN Monday and ride northeast developing a period of precipitation with cold air rushing in behind the question is mainly a snow event then we make up for tonight’s 1-3 if a mix then more coatings.
The big deal next week will be Wednesday and Thursday I’m expecting temperatures in the 20’s this coupled with a gulf storm as well throwing moisture north ahead of a strong low pressure system right now I’m leaning more in the direction of Saturday’s 00z CMC, Friday’s 12Z ECMWF and Friday’s 18Z DGEX all of which bring a heavy snowfall to the region. This snowfall has the potential to be quite excessive due to the fact of high snow ratios so only .5 qpf gives us 10 inches. However the GFS model is further south but this is standard operating procedure with this model as we have seen with this last system trends say it goes further north and west with time on the track. Even with a northwest shift on those other models we’re still good for snow mid-week.
I’ll start going over these systems more tomorrow and then hands things off to Lee who will have a busy week next week.