Groundhog says spring in 2 more weeks!

First to recap this historic storm which produced tremendous amounts of ice and snow to our northwest along with very gusty winds for most of the country.

for regional recaps follow these links.

and for wind gusts in our region

what a storm wish the blizzard would have hit here personally but no ice which is good!

Looking in the long range I see several signs that the unexpected cold and frequent snow of the winter will turn into more of a typical la-nina pattern around here meaning warm for the mid-south with cold over the northwest and more frequent rains  but that is still 2 weeks away.

Earlier this week I suggested while quite a few of the models were dry for Friday night and Saturday that would see periods of snow as a low tracking up the east coast would correct west with time on the models. This appears the case as an upper low will track from Texas into eastern Kentucky with one region of snow northwest of the track while the main surface low is along the east coast. Overall I expect .1-.3 qpf to fall a nice blend of the wet NAM the drier GFS and the SREF from Friday into Saturday. Light snow should develop late Friday afternoon with steady snow Friday night into Saturday. It may start out as rain for a hour or two Friday but quickly change to snow withaccumulations from 1-3 inches any track and strength change with the upper low could result in adjusting of snow totals.

NAM 500 mb map

– friday afternoon the energy is over Texas

By Saturday morning it moves into our region developing the period of snow for late Friday into Saturday.

temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10’s Thursday morning with Highs Thursday in the mid 30’s with fair skies. Lows Friday should be in the mid 20’s with increasing clouds during the day and highs from the mid to upper 30’s. Lows will be around 30 which could lead to some slick spots given the accumulation of snow expected, winter weather advisories may be issued for the region as a result.

This weekend we should warm-up some. This leads into next week one piece of energy should work through Sunday and Monday with a light rain to light snow deal with arctic air coming in behind. At the same time another piece of  energy is left behind in the southern Rockies and as a southeast ridge tries to build it could lead to a classic snowstorm track for the mid south from Texas through the southeast and up the east coast for Late Tuesday through Wednesday of next week if enough energy is left behind in the southern Rockies. Also cold air in the 10’s and 20’s would be pouring in to increase snow ratios more than a typical gulf storm or arctic wave. This should be watched closely as several of the GFS bufkit runs that were trying to form a storm in this timeframe had anywhere from 4 to 9 inches of snowfall at Bowling Green. Another possibility is for the first piece of energy to be stronger and cut into the lakes bringing rain showers to flurries then for the second piece to be very week and actually bring snow  to the gulf coast and track well to our south. right now modeling is split on this DGEX,NOGAPS,JMA and CMC all favor the bigger snowstorm while the UKMET and GFS favor the first piece of energy being stronger with the ECMWF trying to make two storms next week. For now my thinking is that the atmosphere should be to worked over for a storm Sunday into Monday just after two storms in the last week thus the majority of the energy should bundle in the southern Rockies and take that favored snowstorm track by the middle of next week that could be the first 6 snow in recent Bowling green history. But again could be wishful thinking in the long run. speaking of wishful thinking in the other direction A tanking (-) PNA an AO going positive and the long range charts of the ECMWF and GFS show a pattern flip to a typical la-nina pattern which is much warmer than this winter so far around the 15th.

I’ll update again on Friday. My forecast now is 1-3 inches of snow Friday night.


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