Forecast update

– A correction on the isentropic analysis for tomorrow’s rain mixing ratios of 3-5 g/kg should yield rainfall of half an inch to perhaps an inch in a few spots southeast.

– Looks like the system this weekend will actually be closer to the GFS map posted yesterday. A flat wave which quickly moves east. The southeast ridge doesn’t look strong enough to allow a further northwest track and any cold air looks more marginal today for the weekend. Highs temperatures will have to be raised and rain chances lowered this weekend. This means now we can say for certain no white christmas. A continued + AO as well allows for the pattern to be more progressive.

– No real signs of a pattern change into Jan. I’ll look at the Euro weeklies tomorrow night and update on my thoughts on that and the stratospheric warming starting up in the pole region.


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