Rain Late Saturday and Early Sunday PLUS Pattern Seems to be Changing

Both the NAM and the GFS seem to be in better agreement for 36 hours out from the 12Z run. Both are forecasting a widespread rain event, with the only difference being the GFS is wanting to soak the Deep South with heavier rain as opposed to the NAM. For The Mid-South this event looks to mainly bring steady to heavy rain, and maybe some thunderstorms, however, no significant convective activity is expected, as it appears clouds will hinder any major diurnal heating in the warm sector.

Also, for the long term forecast, the GFS is suggesting a change in the pattern, bringing a polar vortex over Canada, based on the 500-mb vorticity and heights plot. Granted this is 144 hours out, but it is definitely something to consider for long term forecasting. However, it is also important to note that the NAO is still forecast to remain positive, and not much change in the AO is expected either.

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