A warm front is still expected to move through overnight. A strong Low level jet (LLJ) will transport moisture into the boundary and provide the lift needed for a period of showers and storms in addition to keeping temperatures rather steady around 60 overnight. Southerly winds will increase as well. Along this warm front, shear will be more than sufficient for severe weather. The majority of this activity I expect to be elevated with means just heavy rain and thunder. However due to the large amount of shear any isolated storm which does become surface based overnight may produce a tornado.
The question is can enough instability materialize for some severe storms Wednesday afternoon with the cold front?
Wednesday afternoon the cold front moves through and will likely develop another round of showers and storms. With daytime heating and a continued transport of warm unstable air into the region I do think at least marginal instability should be present across the region. By early afternoon though the front could very well be closing in on our region. The best lift for storm development is just ahead of the front making the most likely regions for round 2 Wednesday afternoon further southeast. Storms will have a damaging wind/ isolated tornado threat through the afternoon and early evening. Regions ahead of the front should see a temp spike into the 70′s as well. I’ll update any warnings overnight tonight as needed. tomorrow morning we’ll use the RUC and HRRR to actually see where the front will be in the afternoon and pinpoint the exact regions that will see storms. At this point it is to early to call if the front will be through BG before thunderstorms form.
Modeled rainfall on the GFS is overdone due to convective feedback in my view. The NAM, EC and SREF are much less than the 12z OP GFS. Overall rainfall should be from 1/2 to 1 inch perhaps some slightly higher totals in storms.
Friday threat looks more favorable for timing across the region. I’m suspecting another squall line event in fact instability may be a touch more than this Wednesday event. I also feel either Sunday or Monday we’ll be stuck with 40′s for highs and a rain/snow mix. I’m seeing other forecasts back off of 60 and sunny for this time frame.
