Severe threats this week

1. After starting out around 40 Monday temperatures should rebound into the low and mid 60′s for highs. Will trend above guidance with temps. A mix of sun and clouds should also be present with a southwest wind of 5-10 mph.

2. Tuesday the southerly winds should increase perhaps on the order of 10-20 mph. Cloud cover will also increase ahead of a warm frontal boundary. An advection of some instability and moisture should occur but mainly Wednesday. The threat for severe weather Tuesday night looks very similar to last Thursday, marginal. Showers will be likely with a few thunderstorms. Storms may have gusty winds. Any increase in the modeled instability may bring a severe threat into the mix, however this appears unlikely at this time for Tuesday night. Timing is not favorable for severe weather being after midnight Tuesday night for the highest rain chances. The system passing well north of the region on Monday should be culprit in the limited northward advection of moisture and in fact may send in some low level cold air keeping lows in the 30′s Tuesday. Highs should reach the 60′s.

3. A strong LLJ will keep temperatures in the 50′s Tuesday night. The cold frontal boundary will be slow to cross the region. I suspect a temperature spike occurs ahead of the boundary with continued strong southerly winds. Highs will top 70 perhaps reaching the mid 70’s. Along the cold front I suspect enough shear and instability will be present for another round of showers and storms this time with a severe threat. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes would be the main threats However the front may pass east of east of our region before peak heating hours. Any changes in timing could alter the high temp and instability advection into the region Wednesday.

4. Don’t expect much of a cooldown behind the front. A mostly sunny day should occur with lows in the 40′s and highs in the 60′s. The next severe threat with another front moves into the region Fri/Sat.

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