Graduation forecast

1.  Friday will be a great day! Fair skies and highs from 70-75 after morning lows in the upper 40′s.

2. Saturday a low pressure system will develop along the gulf coast advecting clouds and moisture northward into the region. As a result, nighttime lows will be warmer around 50 with highs in the mid to upper 70′s. A little warmer due to return flow. I can’t rule out a shower or two late based on the timing with some of the modeling.

3. Sunday The low pressure system will continue to track along the gulf coast This will result in widespread showers and rumbles of thunder mainly across the south. There is quite a difference in model QPF. However several of the GFS ensemble members are wetter than the operational. I also feel that the ECMWF is to aggressive with QPF. I’m thinking a 1/3-2/3 inch of rainfall for Sunday. Lows will be around 60 with highs only around 70 due to clouds and rain.

4. Next week this system may be a slow-mover which can dent the rainfall deficit. The WKU field methods course out in the plains also starts next week Should be a few active days to start. They will update the blog starting next week for the duration of the trip.

5. Already seeing some tropical interest peaked on the GFS around memorial day with a hit to the southeast U.S, a very long ways away and I don’t think it is likely.

6. From all of us who are graduating this spring and summer we thank you for checking out this site for weather information. This has been an important resume and forecasting skills builder for many here in the meteorology department!


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