The nearly 60 degree weather we had on Saturday is all just a distant memory now as much colder air has spilled its way south into the Ohio Valley. Yesterday highs still managed to reach the upper-40s and thus temperatures were still slightly above average. Today however temperatures will struggle to reach the mid-30s and as for tomorrow, highs will only be in the mid to upper 20s! Meanwhile overnight lows will drop to the low to mid teens for both Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
So why all the cold? In the upper-levels a strong ridge has developed over the western US coast while a strong trough has developed over the central US. This has allowed cold air to drop south over the central US from Canada. Furthermore at the surface a high pressures system is centered over the northern US Rocky Mountains and the clockwise flow around the high is bringing in the cold air even at the surface. As long as this high pressure is too our west or over top us the cold air will be locked in place.
Current mean sea-level pressure and 1000-500 thickness. The X marks the polar vortex over southern Canada. The high pressure over the N. Rockies will bring in the cold air from Canada (blue arrows) making for a very cold first half of the week!
By Wednesday this high pressure will indeed begin to move off to our south and east which will then allow some warming. Until then it will be down right cold!
Thursday into Friday our next low pressure system with precipitation associated with it will move in. I think with the cold air in place there could be some wintry precipitation in the form of snow, sleet and possibly even freezing rain especially on the front end of the system. The models currently do not have a good handle on this system with some models taking the low up the Ohio River which would quickly change any wintry weather here over to rain, while other models take the low over BG or just to our south which would create a better chance for wintry weather. As with any winter storm the low track is essential and at this time that track remains unknown. We’ll have a mid-week update here on the blog that will address this possible winter storm as we should know a lot more by then. Until then be aware that there is a chance of wintry weather Thursday into Friday. Temperatures look to cool off again behind this system which should make for a chilly weekend.
Daily Forecast:
MLK Jr. Day (Today): Mostly sunny but cool with a high near 35. WNW winds from 8-14 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy to at times mostly cloudy. Cold with a low near 14. Northwest winds from 5-10 mph.
Tuesday: COLD!! Partly cloudy with a high near 26. Northwest winds from 4-8 mph.
Tuesday Night: Cold with a low near 15 under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be light.
Wednesday: Warmer but still cool. Partly cloudy with a high near 40. Southwest winds from 3-10 mph.
Thursday: Morning low near 27. Increasing clouds with a 30% chance of precipitation especially in the afternoon. High near 38.