After a cool start to the week temperatures have gradually climbed and today’s high (Thursday) was actually a few degrees above average for this time of year. Temperatures were allowed to warm under generally sunny skies. The warmer temperatures and the mostly sunny skies are thanks in part to a high pressure system located over the eastern United States. Those sunny skies and warmer temperatures are about to change however as the high pressure system slides away from the Ohio Valley. Replacing the high will be a low pressure system and a cold front which is currently making its way across the Midwestern US. In fact there have been some areas of severe thunderstorms in parts of Missouri and Iowa. With the front bring severe storms to our area?
First of all, clouds will begin to move in during the overnight hours tonight and they will stick around likely for the majority of the day Friday. Slowly but surely rain will push from the west to the east across the state throughout the day. There could be some areas of showers and maybe a thunderstorm as early as noon but better chances for scattered showers and storms occur after 3 pm and especially after 6 pm. The heaviest and most consistent rainfall should be moving into south-central Kentucky around 8 pm. Several models indicate that the rain Friday evening will be a large shield of rainfall, with some embedded thunderstorms, lasting through the evening and into the overnight hours. Yes, this means it’s possible that Friday night football games will be soggy for south-central Kentucky; those east of I-65 will have a better chance at not having any rain problems however. So, about those storms, will any be severe you may ask? Due to Friday’s cloud cover across the region we will not have the same atmospheric instability (energy to make storms pop) as there was Thursday over the Midwest. Furthermore, the low-levels winds do not look overly favorable for severe thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, while severe storms appear unlikely at this time, there is still the potential for an isolated strong to severe storm with strong wind gusts being the main threat. The bigger story with the system will be the amount of rainfall possible. Indications are that the area will receive between 0.75 – 1.50 inches of rainfall through the course of the evening. This could lead to some ponding on the roads overnight. Rain will come to an end across the area by 6 am Saturday morning.
A cold front associated with a low pressure system in Canada will create a focal point for rain and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and especially overnight. Rainfall is expected to be between 0.75 – 1.50 inches. Behind the front cooler air (blue arrows) will filter in. Highs will only be in the 70s Saturday and Sunday and with sunny skies, it should make for a nice weekend weatherwise.
Behind the front weather conditions should clear up nicely with sunny skies for the afternoon hours. Temperatures will have cooled a bit as well, with a high only reaching the upper 70s. The weather should be ideal for those planning to attend the WKU vs. Morgan State football game. (Go Tops!) No major weather systems are expected for Sunday or even Monday for that matter, rather the weather will remain mostly sunny with highs in the 70s. Some fog development is likely during the morning hours both Sunday and Monday. Lows could again dip into the upper 40s by Monday morning. The warm weather is not completely done yet however, as was discussed in the early week post temperatures may warm to near 90 by mid-late week next week as another ridge moves over the Ohio Valley. Of course this is subject to change and updates will be posted on the blog next week detailing such.
Daily Forecasts:
Friday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with a 30% change of rain after noon increasing to a 40% chance after 3 pm. Temperatures will be held down some what with the cloud cover and thus we’ll only see a high near 81. South to southwest winds at 6-14 mph.
Friday Night: 90% of rain and thunderstorms. Rain could be heavy at times. Total rainfall is expected to range between 0.75 – 1.50 inches. Low near 65. Winds from 5-10 out of the south switching to the west by morning.
Saturday: Clouds clearing early with a mostly sunny day in store. Cooler with a high around 77. Winds from the north-northwest at 6-12 mph.
Saturday Night: Fog may develop by morning. Otherwise clear skies, light winds with a low near 50.
Sunday: Sunny skies and cool with a high near 74. Northeast wind, generally between 2-8 mph.
Sunday Night: Patchy fog again possible. Cool and clear with a low around 47.
Monday: Sunny skies with a high in the mid 70s.