We have a few rounds of showers and storms forecast to move through the area over the coming days. A few storms could even be severe early next week. However, today will be absolutely beautiful! The sun will be shining bright and we will warm to around 70 degrees this afternoon with hardly a cloud in the sky. Tomorrow will begin rather nice with clouds beginning to roll in early in the afternoon. The high temperature should still approach the upper 70s, but by tomorrow night, showers and a few storms look likely.
Expect a line of showers and storms tomorrow evening into the overnight hours. Any severe weather threat should remain to the west, however, there is a very slim chance that a weak squall line may trigger a warning or two in our area. Make sure you stay tuned to the weather tomorrow evening as the storms get closer to the region.The SPC has issued a slight risk for areas just to our west.
Here is the NAM’s simulated reflectivity for tomorrow at 9pm.
The rain should not be particularly heavy except under thunderstorms. General rain amounts should be between .25 and .50 inches with slightly higher amounts in the heavier storms. The rain will move out early Friday morning which will leave us with another pretty nice afternoon.
Now lets talk about the sever potential early next week.
So far this year, the severe weather across the country has been quite non-existent and very few tornadoes have occurred across areas which typically see many during the spring. Here is the day 4-8 severe storm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:
Five out of the next six days have at least a slight risk for severe weather across the country. Most of the threat will remain back across the Midwest, however, there is potential for severe weather in our area by Monday evening.
Overview of the Severe Potential:
This upcoming severe storm setup will likely lead to a large outbreak across the central U.S. A deep, negatively tilted trough will move through the Midwest this weekend. The 250 mb map for late Saturday shows the trough exiting the Rockies into the southern Plains. The greatest severe potential Saturday will exist from Kansas down through central Texas.
By Sunday the trough has pushed farther east, and along with it the severe storm potential. Sunday’s severe risk will include much of the area from Saturday but extends farther east as well to include central Missouri and Arkansas.
As we head into Monday, the severe risk begins to include the our area. Severe potential exists from central Kentucky back to the west. As it looks now, the greatest severe potential will remain south and west of the Bowling Green area where supercells are more likely to develop. The cells will likely cluster and form a line as they draw closer to the Bowling Green area. BUT, keep in mind, this is 6 days out and no definitive forecast can be concluded upon.
What does it look like for our area??
Here is the location of the trough by Monday at 3pm
The 500mb map at 6pm shows strong winds and vorticity in the area
Jumping to the 700mb map at 6pm, vertical velocities over our area are rather strong. The vertical velocity map shows the areas where a parcel is most able to rise vertically.
The 850mb map shows the low level jet is cranking in our area at 6 pm with good, deep moisture streaming from the south.
6pm winds at 850mb
850mb moisture at 3pm
GFS MUCAPE/Bulk shear map at 6pm shows MUCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg just to our west, with strong bulk shear near 50 knots over Bowling Green. If the temperature can reach the upper 70s Monday, these values will likely be higher, adding a little more instability to the area.
The GFS surface Dewpoint at 6pm shows a dewpoint of 65 degrees just to our west at 6pm. This is more than sufficient moisture to help fuel any storms.
While it is still too early to determine how high of a severe risk there will be in our area Monday, there is a potential for a few strong storms in our area and deserves attention. As mentioned earlier, the main severe weather threat in our area usually comes from a squall line. Storms to the west will likely form a line, with the main impacts being strong winds, heavy rain, some hail, and a few isolated tornadoes. The larger tornado threat looks to remain to the south and west at this time. However, the finer details are subject to change. More details will evolve as this system gets closer to the area. Make sure to keep an eye on the local weather this weekend for any changes with the timing and intensity of storms in the forecast.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday: Sunny, then becoming mostly cloudy during the afternoon, with a high near 79. Light southeast wind becoming south 9 to 14 mph in the morning.
Thursday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind 7 to 13 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am. Sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 5 to 9 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 78.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 76.
Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Monday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74.
Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 59.
Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71.