Its a story that never seems to end,
But warm weather is still in the trend.
Maybe someday that cool air will come down,
And make a smile, from a persistent frown.
– Alex Sizemore
Regardless of my poor poetry skills, warmer weather is in the forecast this upcoming week. Currently, high temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 70s for the entire work week and into the weekend. However, this time of year favors larger diurnal temperature ranges (if clear skies). So despite the somewhat warm weather in the hi-temp department, things cool off quickly in the evenings and over night hours with temps in the upper 40s and 50s, for the most part.
Evidence of the warmer weather over most of the country can be seen in our upper-air pattern. Below is GFS model guidance showing the Ohio Valley just downstream of a ridge of high pressure, which has an axis just to our west. Height anomalies also suggest this as well as heights are greater in magnitude for this time of year across most of the country.
GFS 500 hPa winds, heights, and anomaly – Pivotal
In addition to being warm, it has also been dry for our area. A seemingly drenched summer took little time to turn into a relatively dry autumn for much of the state. With little precipitation over the past few weeks, we have now fallen into abnormally dry conditions.
Latest drought conditions for KY – Courtesy US Drought Monitor
Our next chance for rainfall should come in the overnight hours between Wednesday night and Thursday morning as an area of low pressure passes to our north and drapes an associated cold front across our area. Below are graphics from the latest NAM helping ti illustrate this system:
NAM guidance showing MSLP, 10 m winds, 2 m temps as well as accumulated QPF valid for 12 Z Thursday morning – Pivotal
Its a long shot for any decent accumulation, but any water on the ground will be beneficial. generally speaking, the dry conditions will continue for the next several days across much of the Ohio Valley region.
For now, we will have to deal with our inactive weather pattern and enjoy the pleasant temperatures. With fall foliage on the rise, the boring weather is also very cooperative for getting outdoors and enjoying it!
Have a good week!
– Alex Sizemore