First Major Hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Season

Good morning!

Another hot and humid day is on tap for parts of western Kentucky, with the possibility of scattered showers and storms as soon as early this afternoon.  With southerly flow into Bowling Green, expect temperatures to jump to the lower 90’s today.  Make sure to drink plenty of fluids if you find yourself outside- with prolonged exposure or physical activity even on days such as today, your risk for heat exhaustion/stroke increases.

Below: 06Z NAM Temperatures



Last night, Tropical Storm Gordon made landfall just west of the Alabama-Mississippi border in the Gulf of Mexico as a 70 mph storm (4 mph short of hurricane status!).  It has since began to weaken greatly, and is expected to eventually decay to a remnant low.  While Gordon is weakening, it needs to continue to be monitored as it is forecast to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of the south and midwest.

Below: 06Z GFS Precip Accumulation

The photo above of one run of the GFS (not a forecast!) shows a general idea of what we could see from the remnants of Gordon.  The track of this system will need to be watched closely, as it could potentially impact Saturday’s Cage the Elephant concert and WKU football game.

Below: Major Hurricane Florence in the Atlantic

Hurricane Florence is now the first major hurricane of the 2018 season in the Atlantic.  She is a powerful Category 3 hurricane with sustained wind speeds estimated at 125 mph.  As of this post, she is still closer to Africa than the U.S.- so model runs and forecasts that are out currently have to be taken with a grain of salt.  We will have a much better idea of any U.S. East Coast impacts in the coming days.

Below: Latest Model Guidance


With that being said, there are still a few things to take note of.  Hurricane Florence will move into warmer waters over the next few days, but encounter more shear.  Warmer waters aid tropical cyclone development, however wind shear does the exact opposite.  So far, Hurricane Florence has intensified rather quickly even with wind shear in place.  Also, latest guidance (as shown above) has actually started to trend more to the west, thus slightly increasing the chances of U.S. East Coast impacts.  However, as you may be able to tell, the variation among the model guidance is vast.  Since we are still so early in the game, it’s not time to freak out if you live/have interests on the East Coast.  However, ALL of the East Coast needs to monitor this storm CLOSELY- and have a hurricane plan in place.

A lot going on in the weather world this week- stay informed by following our blog and your local TV meteorologists as well as the National Weather Service.

Bowling Green:

Today: Scattered afternoon storms and showers, high of 91

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies, low of 74

Tomorrow: High of 90, scattered late afternoon showers

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