Current:
Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from midnight CST Saturday through late Saturday night. The next system looks to bring widespread rain this evening through Saturday as well as a potent cold front that could bring the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday evening.
Severe Weather Potential:
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed our region under a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow. This means that scattered severe storms are possible. Storms are expected to be short-lived, not widespread, but some isolated intense storms are possible. The main threats associated with this storm system is: heavy rain, locally damaging winds, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out completely.
Set-Up:
A low pressure system with associated warm and cold fronts is expected to move into the Great Lakes by Saturday evening. The warm front will slowly lift northward through the early morning hours on Saturday bringing more rain, heavy at times, to the region.
A break in the rain looks to occur late morning to early afternoon before the first round of storms start to move in around early afternoon. Some models have been more bullish with the instability and some have limited the instability till later on in the evening ahead of the cold front. What exactly will play out remains to be seen, and will be monitored closely through the afternoon hours.
HRRR Simulated Reflectivity for 1 PM Saturday afternoon.
The greatest chance for severe weather looks to be ahead of the approaching cold front Saturday evening. The storms then organize into a broken line ahead of the front and start to press into the region around 6-9 PM time frame. The timing could change depending on a variety of factors but again, this will be closely monitored throughout the day tomorrow. The main threats from this system will again be heavy rain, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes due to the strong vertical wind shear (change of wind direction or speed with height) present over the area. The activity should be out of the region by the early morning hours on Sunday.
HRRR Simulated Reflectivity for 6 PM Saturday evening.
Forecast:
Tonight – Shower activity increasing through the overnight hours with periods of heavy rain possible. Lows should fall into the mid 40s.
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs should reach into the mid 60s with wind gusts in the upper 20s possible at times.
Saturday night – Showers and thunderstorms likely, some storms could be strong to severe. Heavy rain at times with winds gusts in the upper 20s possible. Lows fall into the mid 40s.
Stay weather aware tomorrow and have a way to receive watches and warnings should they be issued. You can also follow these social media accounts for the latest weather information: @wkustormteam @WKUWeather on Twitter and WKU Storm Team on Facebook. Stay Safe!