Saturday’s Severe Storms

It is with great anticipation that today could be the first severe weather day. Below is the Day 1 Convective Outlook.

Day 1 Convective Outlook (Source: SPC)

The greatest threat for severe weather lies within the red, for places in Southwestern Tennessee and Northern Mississippi face a moderate risk for severe weather. Western Tennessee, Western Alabama, Central Mississippi, Northeastern Louisiana, and Eastern Arkansas are under a enhanced risk. For our case, Bowling Green just faces a slight risk, along with aforementioned states although to a larger extent. More information regarding this map can be found here.

13Z SFC Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

A trough that is established across Kentucky, Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas will be a driver for this severe weather event. A low pressure system centralized over the Texas panhandle will propagate northward as seen below.

13Z HRRR SFC Temperatures (Source: College of DuPage)

Now the cold front can be best visualized starting at 20Z Saturday (2pm CST) and move through the mid-South overnight Sunday. The storms will lie way ahead of the cold front, and once it passes, there will be some sunshine for our Sunday.

13Z HRRR Simulated Reflectivity (Source: College of DuPage)

I’d like to cover the areas that were under a moderate risk first. The squall line will pass through these areas Saturday afternoon. Nevertheless, there will be severe weather for much of Tennessee and Kentucky as seen below.

13Z HRRR Simulated Reflectivity (Source: College of DuPage)

Highs for Saturday in Bowling Green will be in the mid-60’s with lows in the mid 40’s. With the storms making a pass, there will be some sunshine for our Sunday. Highs will be much cooler in the mid-50’s and lows even colder in the lower 30’s. Monday will see similar conditions to Sunday, with high’s in the upper 40’s, and lows in the upper 20’s.


Saturday: 90% chance for thunderstorms, possibly severe. High: 65, Low: 47

Sunday: Sunshine, High: 56, Low: 32

Monday: Sunshine, High: 45, Low: 28

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