WKU Meteorology

Winter has been in full force here is south-central Kentucky this week.  We had the coldest air of the season makes its way into the area for Monday night and Tuesday.  We reached a low of 16 at the Bowling Green airport Tuesday morning and only climbed to a high of 28.  Thanks to southwesterly winds today along with sunny skies we managed to reach a high of 46 yesterday but don’t expect that to last.  Another re-enforcing shot of cold air is currently making it’s way into the Ohio Valley from south-central Canada.  So what does that mean regarding our temperatures… more cold!  It looks like for the 2nd time this week we won’t make it above the freezing.  Highs should be from 28-31 across the region today.  It’s this late tonight when the weather gets interesting.  With the cold air that will be in place as well as a mid-level disturbance that will be moving through the area wintry weather will likely be impacting our area.  Models agree that temperatures will be cold enough to support an all winter weather event but it looks like that winter weather will be in the form of sleet and freezing rain.  Why sleet and freezing rain and not snow you may ask?? This is because further up in the atmosphere the temperature will be above freezing thus allowing what was a snowflake to melt.  Then when it re-enters the cold air which we will have here at ground level the  raindrop freezes; it would be sleet if the snowflake doesn’t fully melt in the

The HPC’s model guidance for ice accumulation suggests up to a 60% of >0.01 of ice for both before 6 am Fri (left) and after 6 am (right).  Notice the best chance for accumulating freezing rain is along the KY/TN border.

atmosphere.  The biggest question with this event will the the amount of precipitation that falls.  Overall models agree that this event should be light in that total precipitation should remain below a quarter of an inch… the problem is that even just a tenth of an inch of ice could cause considerable impacts especially during the morning rush after a very cold week. In the end I think this will be more like a winter weather nuisance more so than anything else but once again due to the timing as well as the fact that surfaces including roads/bridges are cold due to this weeks cold temperatures the system could cause impacts.  On the bright side of things it appears as though we could see a nice warm up next week.

Hi-resolution NAM shows precipitation in the form of freezing rain and sleet Friday morning.

Winter Nuisance Outline:

-Freezing drizzle should begin sometime after midnight tonight.
-Freezing rain and sleet should be heaviest between 5 am – 9 am.
-Temperatures will range from 29-32 during this time frame.
-Precipitation totals should generally be between 0.05-0.10; this could be primarily ice (freezing rain) but sleet could often mix in which would bring ice totals down.  Precipitation totals will increase as you go south (ie. the closer you are the TN border, more precipitation should fall).
-The amount of precipitation is still not certain! Some data suggests only about a tenth of an inch while some data suggest at least a quarter… that’s a big difference when talking ice! Thus stay tuned to an evolving situation.
-Even the lightest precipitation WILL STICK due to the very cold temperatures we have had this week including over 24 hours at or below freezing preceding this winter weather event.
-Roads, especially bridges/overpasses will likely become slick during rush hour Friday morning.
-Temperatures will warm above freezing between 10 and 12 am which should allow any wintry accumulation to melt.

Daily Forecasts:

Today: COLD!! Mostly sunny with a high near 31. Northeast winds from 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night: Cloudy with a 70% chance of freezing drizzle/rain and sleet after midnight (primarily after 3 am). 3-8 mph winds switching from the east to the southeast.

Friday: 80% chance of freezing rain & sleet before noon; some drizzle may linger through midday.  Total ice accumulation between 0.05-0.15 in.  High near 36.  6-12 mph winds switching from the southeast to the west.

Friday Night: Mostly clear and cold with a low near 22. WNW winds from 3-8 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, increasing clouds especially late in the day.  High near 33.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a high near 42.

The nearly 60 degree weather we had on Saturday is all just a distant memory now as much colder air has spilled its way south into the Ohio Valley.  Yesterday highs still managed to reach the upper-40s and thus temperatures were still slightly above average.  Today however temperatures will struggle to reach the mid-30s and as for tomorrow, highs will only be in the mid to upper 20s!  Meanwhile overnight lows will drop to the low to mid teens for both Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

So why all the cold? In the upper-levels a strong ridge has developed over the western US coast while a strong trough has developed over the central US.  This has allowed cold air to drop south over the central US from Canada. Furthermore at the surface a high pressures system is centered over the northern US Rocky Mountains and the clockwise flow around the high is bringing in the cold air even at the surface.  As long as this high pressure is too our west or over top us the cold air will be locked in place.

Current mean sea-level pressure and 1000-500 thickness. The X marks the polar vortex over southern Canada. The high pressure over the N. Rockies will bring in the cold air from Canada (blue arrows) making for a very cold first half of the week!

By Wednesday this high pressure will indeed begin to move off to our south and east which will then allow some warming.  Until then it will be down right cold!

Thursday into Friday our next low pressure system with precipitation associated with it will move in.  I think with the cold air in place there could be some wintry precipitation in the form of snow, sleet and possibly even freezing rain especially on the front end of the system.  The models currently do not have a good handle on this system with some models taking the low up the Ohio River which would quickly change any wintry weather here over to rain, while other models take the low over BG or just to our south which would create a better chance for wintry weather.  As with any winter storm the low track is essential and at this time that track remains unknown.  We’ll have a mid-week update here on the blog that will address this possible winter storm as we should know a lot more by then. Until then be aware that there is a chance of wintry weather Thursday into Friday.  Temperatures look to cool off again behind this system which should make for a chilly weekend.

Daily Forecast:

MLK Jr. Day (Today): Mostly sunny but cool with a high near 35.  WNW winds from 8-14 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy to at times mostly cloudy.  Cold with a low near 14.  Northwest winds from 5-10 mph.

Tuesday: COLD!! Partly cloudy with a high near 26. Northwest winds from 4-8 mph.

Tuesday Night: Cold with a low near 15 under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be light.

Wednesday: Warmer but still cool.  Partly cloudy with a high near 40.  Southwest winds from 3-10 mph.

Thursday: Morning low near 27.  Increasing clouds with a 30% chance of precipitation especially in the afternoon.  High near 38.

Since Tuesday night’s ice potential the weather has gotten much calmer with the sun finally deciding to join us again.  Luckily during Tuesday night’s system temperatures had a very hard time falling below freezing but rather hover at or just above the freezing mark for most of the event.  1 degree or even just a half degree colder would have made quite a difference in how much ice accumulated.  Just to our southwest in north-central Tennessee, there were reports of over a 1/4 inch of ice.  With that our long streak of cloudy and rainy days came to and end so lets look to a better weekend ahead!

I’ll keep this discussion brief because this weekend will be generally a welcomed calm weekend weather-wise.  I’m sure you noticed that temperatures we’re much warmer on Thursday that earlier this week.  This trend should continue and we should even make it to the mid-upper 50s by Saturday.  This is because a surface high pressure system over the south is moving eastward which will put Kentucky in the southerly-warm return flow.  On Saturday the winds bringing in this warmer air will be quite strong with sustained winds from 15-20 mph and gust 25+ mph.  This will be due to the pressure gradient between the surface high pressure in the southeast and a strong surface low pressure over the Great Lakes.  Speaking of this system over the lakes,

A warmer windy Saturday will be thanks to the return flow (red arrows) around a surface high pressure in the southeast. A cold front will move through Sunday which will bring some very COLD air for early next week.

it will be moving east over the weekend dragging a cold front behind which will sweep through Kentucky Sunday.  This cold front will bring our warming trend to a quick and major halt.  High temperatures on Sunday will return to the 40s and lows by Monday morning will be in the low 20s.  As for temperatures Monday and into Tuesday, that’s when the full force on the cold air mass will be felt; temperatures likely won’t make it out of the 20s for day time highs.  This very well cold be the COLDEST air of the season so far!  Lows will likely drop to the low teens! A gradual warm-up will occur starting Wednesday.  Our next chance for rain will come Thursday into Friday of next week, until then enjoy a much needed week of sunny skies!

Daily Forecast:

Today: Sunny and getting warmer with a high near 52.  Southwest winds from 5-10 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear with a low around 30.  Southwest winds from 3-7 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and warmer with a high around 56.  Windy!! Winds from 10-20 mph with gust 25+ mph!

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy with a low near 34.  Winds from 5-10 mph switching from the WSW to the WNW.

Sunday: Mostly sunny but cooler with a high near 44.  Winds NW 3-7 mph.

Martin Luther King, Jr. Day: COLD!!! Sunny with a morning low near 21 and a daytime high near 28.

The recent 8-day streak of measurable rainfall (0.01″ or more) from 1/9 – 1/16, 2013 at Bowling Green tied for the 3rd longest since 1893. The longest rainfall streak of 10 days occurred three times, most recently from 9/17 – 9/26 of 2009. The most recent 8-day streak occurred from 4/22 – 4/29, 2011. The recent 8-day streak produced 3.64″. Nearly all of the precipitation during the streak was rain, although 0.1″ of sleet was recorded on 1/14. Precipitation is not expected through the weekend.

As mentioned yesterday we would have to keep a close eye on the temperatures here in south-central Kentucky to see what type of precipitation would fall tonight.  Temperatures have risen to 35 at the airport as of 1’oclock  Meanwhile the Kentucky mesonet shows temperatures hovering around the freezing mark.  The key is that dewpoints are still near 30 degrees and as precipitation begins to fall the temperature will cool down toward the dewpoint temperature by a process called evaporative cooling.  That’s not so say that temperatures will cool to 30 but they may fall just below freezing.  If this indeed  occurs sleet and freezing rain will fall across south-central Kentucky.  Some areas could receive up to 0.25 inches of ice, especially from I-65 and to the northwest.  Some sleet accumulation is also possible but I think that will be further to the north and west where less melting will occur in the atmosphere.  Rain will probably fall more so in places such as Simpson and Barren counties but will likely be mixed with sleet and temperatures could cool enough to turn rain into freezing rain.  The temperatures will need to continue to be monitored as the precipitation moves in.

Summary:

-Precipitation will move in between 2 and 4.

-Precipitation may start as plan ole rain mixed with some sleet in locations such as Warren, Simpson, Allen and Barren Co.  However precipitation will likely start and continue as sleet and freezing rain in locations further north and west such as Logan, Butler, Edmonson, and Grayson Counties.

-Temperatures should cool a degree or two after precipitation begins which could allow for locations such as Bowling Green to dip below freezing and thus allowing precip to change to freezing rain.  The amount of sleet mixed in may also bring down temperatures.

-Temperatures will need to be monitored closely as a degree or two will mean the difference in an Ice Storm and just a cold rain.

-An Ice Storm is possible with up too 0.25+ inches of ice which could bring down some tree limbs.  Over an inch of sleet is also possible especially northwest of a line from Russellville to Morgantown to Edmonson Co.  These same areas stand the best chance at an Ice Storm, including NW Warren Co but all areas in south-central KY will likely be impacted by freezing rain and sleet.

After a weekend of warm temperatures and rain we now find ourselves in the low 30s with sleet falling in the area.  A very strong cold front blasted its way through the commonwealth yesterday bringing in much colder temperatures.  At one time Sunday afternoon temperatures dropped 15 degrees in an hour.  The front has since moved to our south and east but has stalled generally from Virginia to the New Orleans area.  Meanwhile and upper-level disturbance is moving across the southern plains which is pulling moisture up and over this boundary.  When you have moisture being pulled up and over a cold airmass at the surface, winter weather enters the conversation.  Not just winter weather but usually a wintry mix including sleet and freezing rain.  This is setting up ahead of the disturbance across the mid-south and is impacting us here in south-central Kentucky.  Currently a large area of precipitation exists from Mississippi into our area bringing with it mainly sleet.

Radar imagery around 4 pm shows a large area of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from MS in southern KY.

Snow has been reported on the northern end of the precipitation but its the freezing rain and sleet in Mississippi and Tennessee that have made headlines today. With temperatures hovering between 30 and 33 across the area and with dewpoint temperatures in the 20s, precipitation is falling as snow and mainly sleet.  Precipitation amounts should be very light and with roads still warm after this weekends record warmth any impacts should be minimal but there could be some issues on bridges.  All precipitation should move out quickly this evening and we should be left with just cloudy and cold conditions by 9 pm.  That likely won’t be the end to the wintry weather however.  Yet another upper-level disturbance will move in tomorrow and once again moisture could be pulled up and over the cold air we have in place at the surface.  Models are indicating that this event could be more significant however with around 0.25 of an inch of moisture.  Right now models indicate that this would fall as a very cold rain but I fully expect sleet at times and if temperatures remain below freezing longer than expected some freezing rain is possible too.  Models show that BG would reach a high of 39 but I don’t expect that to occur either.

NAM model simulated reflectivity for 6 pm Tuesday. Temperatures at this time are expected to be in the low to mid 30s.

I think temperatures will struggle to reach 35 tomorrow with precipitation and clouds.  The models forecasted a high from 35-40 today and we only very briefly hit 34.  Thus I expect a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and a very cold rain tomorrow.  Depending on the temperature we may see some travel problems especially late in the day as the sun angle decreases.  Precipitation should move out late tomorrow evening and we return once again to just cloudy and cold conditions.  As for the rest of the week, there could be a few peaks of sun by Wednesday but several clouds will stick around as well.  By Thursday models greatly disagree on the movement of an upper-level disturbance moving through the southern US.  Most models agree that the system will pass off to our south and thus only bringing in a few clouds to our area while the NAM indicates that some rain or even a wintry mix could move in.  Until any of the other models bring the system further north, I’ll leave this out of the forecast but it does at least need monitoring.  I’ll give an update on this system during the midweek update.  One thing is certain in the long term and that is the COLD.  How cold and how long remain unknown but it seems likely that very cold air will move in by early next week which could mean lows into the teens and highs struggling to reach the freezing mark.

Daily Forecasts:

Tonight: 20% chance of a sleet/snow possible before 8 pm otherwise cloudy and cold with a low near 27.  North winds from 5-10 mph.

Tuesday: 70% chance of a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain, and rain mainly after noon.  Some minor sleet and ice accumulations are possible.  Cold with a high near 35.  Rainfall around 0.25 in.  North to northeast winds from 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night: 40% chance of a wintry mix before midnight, otherwise cloudy with a low near 28.  North winds 3-8 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly to partly cloudy with mainly high clouds.  Still cool with a high near 44. West to northwest winds 5-10 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a morning low near 30 and a high near 47.

As mentioned 11 WKU meteorology/land, weather, climate majors traveled to Austin, TX for the Annual American Meteorological Society (AMS) meeting.   Dr. Mahmood, WKU professor of geography/meteorology, also made the trip to Austin with his family to attend the meeting.

The 11 WKU meteorology students that attended the 2013 Annual AMS meeting.  Photo courtesy of Andrew Dockery.

Students left Bowling Green last Friday morning and after staying the night in Dallas, TX made their way to Austin Saturday morning just in time to attend the Student Conference.  The Student Conference featured keynote speakers Dr. Steve Lyons, Meteorologist in Charge at NWS San Angelo, TX (formerly of The Weather Channel)

Dr. Steve Lyons, MIC at the NWS San Angelo, TX office, was a keynote speaker at the AMS Student Conference. Photo courtesy of Andrew Dockery.

and Dr. Francis Slakey of Georgetown University.  The Student Conference as provided an opportunity for students to attend breakout sessions that varied from individuals in the private sector, those in research, those in the public sector including National Hurricane Director Dr. Rick Knabb, and individuals associated with graduate school.  All told there were numerous speakers from all sectors of the meteorological field at the student conference that specifically directed there talks and gave advice to meteorology, climate, hydrology  etc… students.  A career fair and graduate school reception also provided and excellent opportunity for students to connect with possible employers as well as professors and students from graduate schools.

To end the student conference, students from across the nation presented research in a poster session.  WKU was well represented with 3 research posters being presented.  Andrew Dockery and John L. Thomas presented a poster entitled “A Case Study of a Rare Long-Track EF-3 Tornado in Eastern Kentucky” which was a result of research with Dr. Durkee done during the 2012 Summer Research Seminar.  Other WKU students Tyler Binkley, Ryan Difani, Micheal Flanigan (not pictured), and Quentin Walker also worked on the research.

Tyler Binkley, Andrew Dockery, John L. Thomas, Quentin Walker, Ryan Difani, (from left to right) and Michael Flanigan (not pictured) with their research poster presented during the Student Conference at the 2013 AMS Annual Meeting. Photo courtesy of Will Paschall.

Emily Yates presented her research poster entitled “March 9 Hawaii Kona Low System Case Study” which was research she did for her Weather Forecasting and Analysis Project.

Emily Yates with her research poster during the student conference at the 2013 Annual AMS Meeting. Photo courtesy of Will Paschall.

Finally Chris Johnson presented a research poster entitled “15th Anniversary of Mid-South Severe Weather Outbreak.”  This research project was a result of Dr. Durkee’s Fall Research Seminar.  Others working on this research were Emily Yates, Micheal Flanigan (not pictured) and Quentin Walker.

Quentin Walker, Emily Yates, Chris Johnson (from left to right) and Michael Flanigan (not pictured) with their research poster during the student conference at the 2013 Annual AMS Meeting. Photo courtesy of Will Paschall.

Starting Monday the main conference was underway with numerous talks throughout the week.  Some favorites of students were talks on tornadoes, hurricanes, and lightning.  Aside from the talks there were opportunities to meet and network with other professionals.  Officers of the WKU AMS/NWA student chapter attended a chapter officers breakfast on Tuesday morning.  An exhibit fair featured numerous professionals in the field with which students could meet with.  The Doppler on Wheels (DOW) vehicle was also on display with researcher Dr. Josh Wurman present.  Finally not to be left out was some great Texas food enjoyed by the group including an excellent “Tex-Mex” location in downtown Austin and some fantastic barbecue from The  Ironworks Barbecue also located in  downtown Austin.  The trip concluded  with

Chili and a brisket barbecue sandwich from “The Ironworks Barbecue” in downtown Austin, TX. Photo courtesy of Andrew Dockery.

the AMS banquet on Wednesday evening.  The group left out Thursday morning to make the trip back to Bowling Green.  Also not to be left out, WKU student Austin Boys served as a student volunteer throughout the conference.  The group thoroughly enjoyed the conference and we are already making plans to attend next year’s annual meeting in Atlanta, GA.

We’re back!  For those that noticed the lack of forecasts this past week it was because 11 WKU meteorology students (including your forecaster) traveled to Austin, TX for the 2013 American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting.  I’ll post a recap of the trip later but for now back to the weather.

When I last posted, we we’re talking about a warm up in the days to come and warm up it did.  Bowling Green reached 70 degrees on Friday which broke the old record of 68 set in 1916!  Meanwhile temperatures have hovered in the upper 60s to near 70 again today.  Besides the warmer weather, rain has been the other story.  We have seen a little over an inch of rain this past week in the county and more heavy rain is on the way.  This will bring up the threat for flash flooding and minor river flooding.  The NWS has issued a Flood Watch for Warren Co and most of south-central Kentucky through tomorrow evening as up to 3+ inches of rain is possible.  Currently there is a low pressure in NE Texas with a warm front extending from the low through Arkansas and into Indiana.  The aforementioned low pressure will ride along the front and will pass to our north but a cold front extending south from the low will pass through Sunday.  This system will be the focal point for the heavy rain through Sunday night.  Very heavy rain will be possible especially around midday tomorrow as moist air will be streaming in from the Gulf.  A very strong low-level jet between 50 and 60 knots will be responsible for bringing in such moist air.

NAM forecast precipitable water values Sunday morning are in excess of 1.5 inches over most of central Kentucky.

Precipitable water values will be over an inch and a half for several hours during the middle of the day tomorrow.  With the intense rainfall flash flooding will be a very real possibility especially because of the amount of moisture already in the ground due to our recent rains.  In total between 1.5-3 inches of rain will be possible across much of south-central Kentucky.  It can’t be ruled out that some locations could see more than 3 inches.  The official forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is for between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain.

The HPC rainfall forecast indicates 1.5-2.5 inches of rain over south-central KY.

Behind the front which will pass through Sunday MUCH colder air will move into the state.  The cold air mass that is currently over much of the Midwest (which provided the cold air for the Broncos vs. Ravens game in Denver) will be moving in (though it won’t be as cold as it is at the game).  Temperatures will begin falling by early afternoon and temps will be in the 40s by 6 pm.  Temperatures may be cold enough tomorrow night before the precipitation ends to allow the rain mix with or transition to sleet or even freezing drizzle.  Overall any wintry precipitation should be light and shouldn’t create any impacts.  Colder air will be in place for much of the early part of the week with temperatures generally in the 40s for highs.  The front which will pass through here Sunday will stall across the southeastern US and a couple of disturbances along with this front will create at least the chance of precipitation both Monday night and Tuesday.  Models disagree on how much if any precipitation will fall in south-central Kentucky and thus this system bears watching.  Furthermore with the colder air in place especially at night some of the precipitation could be of the wintry type.  Check back in for the early week update on this system.  Furthermore another system next Friday could also bring a chance of some wintry weather or it could just be all rain but time will tell.

Daily Forecasts:

Tonight: FLOOD WATCH  Cloudy skies and warm with temperatures steady in the upper 60s; low near 66.  50% chance of rain after 1 am.  Windy with south winds 15-22 mph.

Sunday: FLOOD WATCH  Rain, rain will likely be heavy at times and some thunder is possible.  High near 65 early but temperatures will drop throughout the day into the 40s by 6 pm.  Winds will switch from the SW to the NW throughout the day; winds from 8-15 mph.  Rainfall totals between 1.5 and 3 inches.

Sunday Night: 50% chance of rain before 10 pm with a slight chance thereafter. Some sleet or freezing drizzle can’t be ruled out.  Temperatures cooling to a low near 28.  NNW winds from 5-10 mph.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cool with high near 38.  North winds from 5-10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy with a 40% chance of light rain possibly mixed with sleet.  Chilly with a low 29 and a high near 40.

The sun has made a return to south-central Kentucky after a few days of clouds and rain to start the week.  Temperatures have slowly warmed as well and it seems as though highs will trend to being in the low 40s for the remained of the week and into the weekend.  High pressure will be in control over most of the central US for the end of the week.  With the high centered to our west, north and northwesterly winds will keep the cool air across Kentucky.

NAM forecast surface temperatures/MSLP Saturday afternoon. With the high pressure centered to our southeast, a warm-moist southerly flow will be over KY. The cold front located over the Plains will pass through Sunday morning bringing in another wave of colder air.

By this weekend however the high will push to our east and thus a southerly return flow around the high will bring in warmer air and more moisture.  This return flow along with a shortwave disturbance in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will be enough to bring at least increased cloudiness by Saturday afternoon/night.  A few sprinkles/flurries are possible Saturday evening/night though any precipitation should be light if it falls at all.  Another wave of colder air is likely behind a cold front that should pass through Sunday morning; meanwhile high pressure will once again build in.  As that high moves east early next week a more significant warm up appears likely.

Daily Forecast:

Tonight: A few clouds but otherwise mostly clear and cold with low around 22.  Light NW winds.

Friday: Sunny skies with a high near 43.  West winds from 3-10 mph.

Friday Night: A clear cold night with lows around 23. Light and variable winds.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies early before becoming cloudy by noon.  High around 45.  South winds at 3-6 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with a 20% chance light shower/snow shower or sprinkle/flurry.  Low around 30. Southwest winds from  2-6 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy and cooler with a high near 40. Winds switching from the SSW to the NW; winds from 6-12 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with a high around 44.

Another “trace” of snowfall was recorded over the weekend for Bowling Green, but there has still been no measurable snowfall this winter.  Despite a very cold upcoming week to start the new year, any snow chances are slim to none.  Rain chances on the other hand are quite high at least through tomorrow morning.  Currently an upper-level trough extends across the Rocky Mountains with an associated shortwave in the four corners region.  This disturbance along with a weak surface low in Oklahoma is setting off a large area of showers over much of the south-central US.  This disturbance and thus the rainfall will be moving east and into our area.  Light rain should begin this afternoon and continue off and on into the overnight.  Rain should become steadier around midnight just in time to ring in the 2013.  The best chance for a steady rainfall will be between midnight and 6 am.

RAP model simulated reflectivity for midnight tonight. Notice rain will be falling to ring in the new year for most of Kentucky.

The front associated with the system will be moving very slowly by tomorrow morning thanks to a strong high pressure just off the southeast coast. This will allow a continued area of rainfall Tuesday morning from Warren Co south and east into Tennessee; with that said some of the highest rainfall totals should be to our south and east.  Nonetheless between a quarter and half inch of rainfall is expected here in south-central Kentucky.  The first day of the new year will be cloudy day with a chance of a showers primarily before noon.  North to northwest winds on New Year’s Day will bring in a reinforcing shot of colder air which will keep temperatures cool.  Highs likely won’t reach 40 Tuesday and Wednesday.  The cold weather will be the main story this week after tonight’s rainfall as the rest of the week will be rather uneventful.  High pressure will in Tuesday night and keep the weather calm and cold.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s national forecast for Wednesday shows high pressure in control over the central US. Also note the low pressure and cold front near the US/Canadian border. This weak front should pass through Thursday and bring in another wave of cold air late in the week.

Another weak cold front will likely push through Thursday only to bring in more cold calm weather.  The front will lack moisture and thus it should be a dry front on Thursday.

Looking long term models are indicating that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will become positive which would tend to allow warmer air to move in.  It does indeed appear as though warmer temperatures will be in store by next weekend and highs may approach 50 by early next week.

Daily Forecasts:

New Year’s Eve Night: 90% chance of rain. Chilly with a low around 37.  Light SE winds.  Rainfall between 0.25-0.40 inches of rain.

New Year’s Day: 50% chance of rain before noon with a 30% chance of a few showers or even a flurry thereafter.  Cool with a high near 39.  North to northwest winds from 3-8 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy by morning.  Cold with a low around 25.  North winds from 3-8 mph.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny with a few high clouds.  High near 36.  Light north winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with a morning low near 24 and high around 41.