A Cold & Rainy Start to the New Year

Another “trace” of snowfall was recorded over the weekend for Bowling Green, but there has still been no measurable snowfall this winter.  Despite a very cold upcoming week to start the new year, any snow chances are slim to none.  Rain chances on the other hand are quite high at least through tomorrow morning.  Currently an upper-level trough extends across the Rocky Mountains with an associated shortwave in the four corners region.  This disturbance along with a weak surface low in Oklahoma is setting off a large area of showers over much of the south-central US.  This disturbance and thus the rainfall will be moving east and into our area.  Light rain should begin this afternoon and continue off and on into the overnight.  Rain should become steadier around midnight just in time to ring in the 2013.  The best chance for a steady rainfall will be between midnight and 6 am.

RAP model simulated reflectivity for midnight tonight. Notice rain will be falling to ring in the new year for most of Kentucky.

The front associated with the system will be moving very slowly by tomorrow morning thanks to a strong high pressure just off the southeast coast. This will allow a continued area of rainfall Tuesday morning from Warren Co south and east into Tennessee; with that said some of the highest rainfall totals should be to our south and east.  Nonetheless between a quarter and half inch of rainfall is expected here in south-central Kentucky.  The first day of the new year will be cloudy day with a chance of a showers primarily before noon.  North to northwest winds on New Year’s Day will bring in a reinforcing shot of colder air which will keep temperatures cool.  Highs likely won’t reach 40 Tuesday and Wednesday.  The cold weather will be the main story this week after tonight’s rainfall as the rest of the week will be rather uneventful.  High pressure will in Tuesday night and keep the weather calm and cold.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s national forecast for Wednesday shows high pressure in control over the central US. Also note the low pressure and cold front near the US/Canadian border. This weak front should pass through Thursday and bring in another wave of cold air late in the week.

Another weak cold front will likely push through Thursday only to bring in more cold calm weather.  The front will lack moisture and thus it should be a dry front on Thursday.

Looking long term models are indicating that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will become positive which would tend to allow warmer air to move in.  It does indeed appear as though warmer temperatures will be in store by next weekend and highs may approach 50 by early next week.

Daily Forecasts:

New Year’s Eve Night: 90% chance of rain. Chilly with a low around 37.  Light SE winds.  Rainfall between 0.25-0.40 inches of rain.

New Year’s Day: 50% chance of rain before noon with a 30% chance of a few showers or even a flurry thereafter.  Cool with a high near 39.  North to northwest winds from 3-8 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy by morning.  Cold with a low around 25.  North winds from 3-8 mph.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny with a few high clouds.  High near 36.  Light north winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with a morning low near 24 and high around 41.

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