WKU Meteorology

As all of you have noticed spring is here ,and the first full week of spring brings the continuous warmer temperatures. Here in Bowling Green, we are still roughly 5+ degrees above the normal and should continue on that track for the remainder of the week.

Below is a current map of temperatures across the nation. An abundance of warmth is dominating the SE of the country today.

The rain chance for Monday and Tuesday is at a minimum while the second half of the week remains open for isolated showers.

Temperatures for Tuesday are looking to be a bit higher than today, with highs around 80

Highlights
• Pattern change for the rest of the week
• Cooler temperatures and chances of precipitation through the weekend

Forecast
Deep upper level trough that has been producing heavy rain and severe weather in TX through the week, will cut-off and slowly drift across our region through the weekend. With enhanced lift and a cool core aloft will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop starting Thursday. A cool front will then proceed through early Friday morning bringing temperatures down to more seasonable. QPF amounts vary, but not expecting near the intensity experience across the southern plains. Bottom line is temperatures will top off near 79 with heavy cloud cover and thundershowers Thursday with a low around 60 as the cold front approaches. Temperatures will continue to fall with higher precip chances Fri and a high and low of 70/55. Rain should end by Sunday with partly cloudy skies and a high near 70.

Highlights
Persistance forecast with high temperatures in the low 80’s and low’s around 60.
Forecast
As the upper level ridge and respondant low level southerly flow continue to amplify, our sensible weather will remain much of the same through Wed. All of the upper level dynamics are cofined to the highly dug trough over the central plains that will most likely cut-off and effect our weather for later this weekend. The only chance of precip looks to be Wed, and this will be highly dependent on how much instability is advected into our region that day. For now the period looks to be mostly dry.

Unseasonably warm conditions continue to be the story across much of the eastern half of the US, as seen in the surface temperature map provided by TwisterData.com for Thursday at 18z (1PM).  A large upper level ridge is parked over the area bringing high temperatures in the lower 80s and low temperatures in the 60s.  The record for yesterday (March 14^th) was 82 set in 1967 and yesterday’s high was 81.  These warm conditions will continue for the weekend and early next week.  These warm and moist conditions will also produce summer like storms.  Expect an increase in chances for your Thursday and Friday as an upper level disturbance moves through the area.  These storms will likely not be severe, but heavy rain and small hail are not out of the question.  Since the convection will be mostly unorganized you might want to check local radar for the next several days if planning outdoor activities.

By: Dustin Jordan

A band of heavy rain will move through this afternoon and evening bringing rainfall totals from 2-3 inches. small streams and creeks will likely rise quick later today.

Would not be surprised to see totals near an inch. The secondary low for Saturday appears to be Sunday timing instead with warmer conditions so no threat of frz rain. enjoy the rest of spring break!

2. Tuesday skies will be sunny with some southerly flow. I expect a quick warm-up with highs in the mid 60’s.

3. Another sunny day Wednesday with southerly flow lows will range from the mid to upper 40′s. Highs will be in the 60′s.

4. A split flow pattern evolves by mid-week with a cut-off low over the desert southwest and a front moving across the great lakes. Increasing clouds Wednesday night and southwest winds may keep temps in the 50′s.

5. The cut-off low forms a low over the Arkansas region Thursday. Severe weather stays south of our region since the low track is south. However periods of rain are likely from Thursday afternoon into Friday. Temperatures Thursday should rise into the 60′s before falling into the 40′s early Friday with highs in the 50′s on Friday.

6. Low level cold drills in by Saturday morning lows may be in the  low 30′s. Our frontal boundary moves south of the region, the most likely case is what the models are showing a sunny cold day Saturday. However I would not be surprised to see a secondary low along the front make a run at the region with a freezing rain/rain mix.

NWS report on the southern supercell from Friday

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
432 PM EST Mon Mar 05 2012

...Damage Report for Simpson and Warren counties in Kentucky...

Damage Type: Straight Line Wind Damage

       Date: Mar 02 2012
 Begin Time:  4:48 PM EST
   End Time:  5:05 PM EST

Begin Point: 4 NNW Franklin
  End Point: 2 SE Alvaton

 Wind Speed: 80-90 mph

   Injuries: 0
 Fatalities: 0

Damage Type: Tornado

       Date: Mar 02 2012
 Begin Time:  5:05 PM EST
   End Time:  5:07 PM EST

Begin Point: 2 SE Alvaton
  End Point: 2 E Alvaton

   EF Scale: 1
 Wind Speed: 95 mph

Path Length: 2 miles
 Path Width: 60 yards

   Injuries: 0
 Fatalities: 0

Narrative:

Straight line wind damage along and north of the super cell moving
through Simpson County uprooting shallow-rooted hardwood and
softwood trees and destroying a tool shed on Evans Rd.  As it moved
into Warren county it damaged barn roofs and produced golf ball size
hail which penetrated siding on numerous vinyl sided houses.  As it
reached 961 east of Alvaton in Warren county, it spawned an EF1
tornado with winds estimated at 95 mph destroying a barn and tool
shed.

$$

WEW/RJS

Here are some youtube videos

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWEeE8kgqoM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBZXKoOW7yk

CNN news article

http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/03/us/severe-weather/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Here is a radar image from the Washington post and Stu Ostro of the weather Chanel.

This is an image of a supercell storm at peak intensity, you can see the hook portion heading into west Liberty.

Radar image. the different colars measure the wind sepped going from and toward the radar. Where they meet you have the tornado.

image from texas storm chasers

I would post more but I’m sure have many of the same searching methods as I do. I’ll post final numbers sometime next week.

The clipper will take a climatological track north of BG Sunday night. Louisville, Lexington and many of the tornado affected regions of east KY may see a inch perhaps a few of snow. For BG expect some scattered rain showers, maybe a little mixes in, temps stay above 32.

I’m signaling the all clear. I’ll post if anything on damage in the region later tonight or Saturday.

A tornado warning is in effect till 4:30.