WKU Meteorology

This has the looks of a major severe weather event in the region for Friday afternoon and evening. A strong surge of moisture and instability will once again move northward through the region Friday afternoon with dewpoints over 60*F and Convective alivable potential energy (CAPE) values from 1000-1500 J/KG by late afternoon. A warm front will push through in the morning with the LLJ interacting with the warm front will produce some showers and storms in the morning from north to south with clearing by midday.  Similar to the last event shear parameters will be more than sufficient for a severe threat.

Our region has the best chance in the warm sector to reach the higher CAPE values of around 1500 J/KG. The higher CAPE values coupled with steeping lapse rates will promote an enviroment capable of having storms producing large hail.

Storm motions will be very quick as well coupled with a strong upper level jet moving through damaging winds will be a widespread threat.

By early afternoon scattered supercells will develop over Western Kentucky and move toward us around mid-afternoon. These scattered supercells will have hail cores and hook echos as well more than likely. Tornadoes may be found in the hook echos.  These supercells will organize into a linear fashion by evening with the overall main threat evolving into damaging winds. Like with the squall line on Wednesday any storm along it may develop rotation with little notice though the strongest tornadoes should be with any supercells.

highlights

– scattered supercells for mid-afternoon/early evening

– line of storms in the evening

– upgrade to high risk by SPC possible.

My main concern is from the late afternoon supercells. However the squall line will have widespread severe weather.  The best chance of having a bust with this event is from morning showers and storms limiting instability. I don’t think that will be to much of a limiting factor. I will comment with rapid fire posts similar to Wednesday.

As we head into next week it won’t feel like spirng break. The day 7 NWS forecast for Monday may bust by 15*F. As a clipper moves through with a mix of rain and snow showers. Temps should stay just above freezing for accums. Highs will only be in the 40’s with a raw nw flow. Quite  a turnaround. As usual with a clippers a snow swath of 1-2 inches will track to our north across the bluegrass and eastern KY.

We have another threat Friday for severe weather I’ll update on this later today.

the severe weather is clearing out. However the heavy rain from today has led to a chance for some flooding this afternoon.

This storm is heading toward the city of Bowling Green and a tornado warning remains in effect.

This one inclues the city of BG. untill 12:15

Some week rotation is present on doppler radar northeast of BG seek shelter now!

A thunderstorm will track over Warren county with winds up to 60 mph, small hail and heavy rain. a flood advisory is also in effect.

A squall line has been very slow to move southeast. Gusty winds approraching severe limits and small hail are possible. Helicity values are still very high and rotation may quickly form in any storm as well.

Thanks tor the storng overnight LLJ a squall line deelvoped to our west and has moved into areas to our north and west. A tornado has already touched in Madisonville,KY this morning. A extreme amount of shear exisits ahead of the squall line (helicity values over 700 m/s^2). This promotes the chance that any storm may turn tornadic. Strong gusty winds are the other main threat. Should a stronger storm track over Warren county some hail may occur. This squall line will redelevop and strengthen to our southeast as the last update indicated. Southeast KY and northern TN will have a very nasty day and the SPC has upgraded these regions to a moderate risk.

A warm front is still expected to move through overnight. A strong Low level jet (LLJ) will transport moisture into the boundary and provide the lift needed for a period of showers and storms in addition to keeping temperatures rather steady around 60 overnight. Southerly winds will increase as well. Along this warm front, shear will be more than sufficient for severe weather. The majority of this activity I expect to be elevated with means just heavy rain and thunder.  However due to the large amount of shear any isolated storm which does become surface based overnight may produce a tornado.

The question is can enough instability materialize for some severe storms Wednesday afternoon with the cold front?

Wednesday afternoon the cold front moves through and will likely develop another round of showers and storms. With daytime heating and a continued transport of warm unstable air into the region I do think at least marginal instability should be present across the region. By early afternoon though the front could very well be closing in on our region. The best lift for storm development is just ahead of the front making the most likely regions for round 2 Wednesday afternoon further southeast. Storms will have a damaging wind/ isolated tornado threat through the afternoon and early evening. Regions ahead of the front should see a temp spike into the 70′s as well.  I’ll update any warnings overnight tonight as needed. tomorrow morning we’ll use the RUC and HRRR to actually see where the front will be in the afternoon and pinpoint the exact regions that will see storms. At this point it is to early to call if the front will be through BG before thunderstorms form.

Modeled rainfall on the GFS is overdone due to convective feedback in my view. The NAM, EC and SREF are much less than the 12z OP GFS. Overall rainfall should be from 1/2 to 1 inch perhaps some slightly higher totals in storms.

Friday threat looks more favorable for timing across the region. I’m suspecting another squall line event in fact instability may be a touch more than this Wednesday event. I also feel either Sunday or Monday we’ll be stuck with 40′s for highs and a rain/snow mix. I’m seeing other forecasts back off of 60 and sunny for this time frame.