Snow accumulation update

As expected, in the past few hours, both WNKY and WBKO have joined the NWS in drastically lowering their temperatures for the Sat-Tues period. But interestingly, both WBKO and WNKY are downplaying the Thursday/Friday storm (both are predicting one inch for Bowling Green) even though they now think the storm will be mostly snow. Normally, you raise amounts when you downplay the likelihood of a mix or changeover to IP/Z/R.

In fact, there is some evidence that south-central KY could receive 4″ plus of snow from this storm. What is that evidence?

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center of the National Weather Service makes probabilistic forecasts of areas of the U.S. that may receive 4″+, 8″+, and 12″+ snowfall. According to their latest update, the HPC now gives a 10% chance of a 4″+ snowfall for all of KY and TN. Their reasoning can be found here. Now keep in mind, there is 100% chance it will snow in KY/TN on Thursday/Friday, but there is only a 10% that the total accumulation will be >4″. To summarize their reasoning, they are accounting for the fact that snow/water ratios will be greater than the typical 10:1 ratio and that the snow will continue through Friday afternoon.

The Bottom Line:
Now I don’t want any of the five people who actually read this blog to go around saying that I am predicting over four inches of snow (unless it actually happens, of course). While it is still impossible to definitely say how much snow will fall Thursday/Friday (after all, it’s still 42 hours before the first flake flies), I think my original prediction of one to two inches is still a good bet. However, I won’t rule out the possibility that the amount could be higher than that. More Wednesday.

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