Severe weather outbreak – Tuesday morning update

Current radar shows the cold front that sparked a line of convection north of the Ohio River last night is stalling out and retrograding northward. It is expected that this boundary will become a quasistationary warm front that will continue to spawn convection along a line from SE Missouri to southern Ohio. This will help to keep south-central KY mostly dry through the afternoon hours.

The SPC has upgraded areas to our south and west to a high risk for severe weather today. Tornadic supercells are expected to break out in the warm sector ahead of the cold front that will develop behind the strengthening low pressure that is currently over southern Oklahoma. The surface low will move along the quasistationary boundary currently over southern Indiana and southern Ohio tonight and be found over western PA by morning.

Since there is plenty of warm air aloft over south-central KY at the moment, I think that we will avoid any severe weather until the squall line ahead of the cold front approaches later tonight. We currently lack any kind of uplift that would be able to overcome the convective cap. The only exception to this would be if we get some breaks in the clouds this afternoon, but even then, the early February sun angle may not be enough to allow anything other than showers to develop before the dynamics arrive later tonight.

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