Mid-week severe weather potential

Anytime you get a stretch of several days in a row of 60+ weather during winter you have to be concerned about severe weather when the cold air returns. For south-central KY, it looks like the worst of the severe weather will occur to the south and west of the region.

The current pattern features a split flow over the U.S. with a deep storm over the West Coast and a zonal flow over the eastern half of the country. The arctic high that brought freezing temperatures all the way into central FL has now set up over the Southeast and is pumping warm, Gulf air into KY. Another potent winter storm lurks off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The first West Coast storm will eject northward into the northern Plains Monday which will bring rain showers into the Midwest. Right now it looks like most of this precipitation will miss KY. By Tuesday, storm #2 will take a more southerly track through the southern Plains, which should spawn severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes from Texas to Arkansas. Thunderstorms will move into KY on Wednesday, but there is some question as to how much instability will be available. The timing of the squall line will be an important key here.

Beyond that, it appears that in the long range the models are trending colder.

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