1. The majority of us in the mid south have seen periods of storms over the weekend, just enough to cancel those late afternoon and evening outdoor plans for some. However, Sunday night our friends to the north in Louisville saw the training of thunderstorms from south to north across the metro area and with rainfall rates over an inch an hour. This led to rapid rises in streams, creeks and other collectors of water. This was labeled a flash flood emergency by the NWS in Louisville with several water rescues. The forecast for this week is also included in this post.
link to NWS page on flooding.
2. This same disturbance should continue to develop several areas of showers and storms mainly across eastern sections of the mid south on Monday. Like Sunday heavy rainfall can add up quickly from any thunderstorms and lead to some flash flooding in a few spots. Highs should be around 80 after starting in the low 60’s.
Image of NAM radar for late Monday afternoon.
3. Several days ago the majority of the meteorological models showed a strong cold front with a chance of severe weather ahead and a fall preview behind it, even one run of the gfs had a close call with the S word. However, this front doesn’t look nearly as strong now on the models and the airmass behind it now looks to be pacific in origin which is a milder airmass. In fact the low from this front should cutoff over the plains for midweek. We will be ahead of this system which means continued southerly flow and the threat for more afternoon showers and storms for Tuesday and Wednesday, I don’t expect the spread in temperature to change much from Monday and with a very slow moving system cutoff from the jet any severe threat is very low.
4. There may be some leftover boundaries from this front on Thursday which may still lead to a passing shower or two. Again highs near 80 and lows in the lower 60’s.
5. Check back later in the week for my personal winter forecast for the mid south. I will give my view on the El-nino episode and more as well in that report.
this from the nws
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
617 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
517 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…
NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOWLING GREEN…
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT
* AT 514 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT OVER ONE
INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR OVER FAR NORTHEAST SIMPSON
COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTY FROM A SLOW-MOVING…TRAINING
THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA COULD TRAIN OVER THIS
SAME LOCATION…CAUSING RISES OF CREEKS AND PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS AFFECTED THE TOWNS OF
PLANO…BOYCE…GOLD CITY AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS…URBAN AREAS…UNDERPASSES AND OTHER LOW LYING
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
watching a mcs stretching from st louis to little rock to see if it moves into western areas of the mid south by dawn.
flood advisory for logan county. these storms are moving ne toward bowling green.
upgrade that to a flash flood warning for logan county remember we had a flood adv with the storms the other day in warren county it will not take much more to prompt another adv here. radar trends show several rounds of storms tonight for bwg.
flood adv for edmonson,butler,grayson and warren counties this includes bowling green.