The weather for Thanksgiving across much of the Mid-South appears to be perfect for staying inside, eating, and watching a little football. It should be fairly cold tonight with the low temperature bottoming out in the upper-30s. But the clouds will continue to increase across the area tomorrow morning as the next system drops into our region from the upper-Mississippi valley. By around noon Thanksgiving day, a significant area of vorticity at the 500 mb level will pass over the Ohio valley. This will help to wring out any moisture available in the atmosphere at that time by creating a fair amount of lift in the mid-levels. However, moisture appears to be in short supply with this storm system given its Canadian origin, meaning that any precipitation that falls tomorrow will be light and scattered in nature. Furthermore, the models disagree somewhat on just how far south the moisture will advance. While the GFS has the moisture associated with this storm reaching as far south as middle Tennessee, the NAM halts the southward progression of this moisture in central and north central Kentucky.
So here are some Thanksgiving day forecasts for several areas across the Mid-South:
-Bowling Green/South Central Kentucky: high in the mid-40s, steady west wind at 5-10 mph, cloudy conditions with a decent chance for light rain showers during the afternoon ending by evening
-Nashville/Middle Tennessee: high in the upper-40s, steady (gusty at times) west wind at 5-10 mph, generally cloudy with a very slight chance of a sprinkle in the afternoon
-Louisville, Lexington, and Cincinnati/Central, Eastern, and Northern Kentucky: high in the low-40s, steady west wind at 5-10 mph, cloudy with light rain showers during the afternoon, changing over to a mix of light rain and snow during the evening, and finally flurries/light snow showers overnight and into Friday morning. Some areas, especially in the tri-state region of northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and southwest Ohio, may receive as much as a quick dusting under some of these light snow bands.
Ultimately, the precipitation everywhere should be very light. So holiday travel should not be negatively affected all that much by this system.
Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving holiday!