Old Man Winter in Charge

1. This afternoon highs should be able to recover into the mid 20’s thanks to mostly sunny skies after a very chilly start.

2. Monday will see a increase in clouds thanks to the flow off the Great Lakes becoming more northerly with lows in the lower 10’s and highs in the mid 20’s again with arctic air in place. Right now it appears that any snow showers with an disturbance in the flow should stay to the northwest but a few flurries can’t be ruled out early Tuesday with a similar temp spread.

3. Wednesday The sun should return again  as the region is on the backside of the high allowing for limited waa. However this only gets us into the upper 20’s for highs after another cold start in the low to mid 10’s.

4. An arctic front coupled with low pressure transporting moisture from the south swings through the region thursday results in  widespread snow as dense arctic air continues to be in place. Right now highs will be in the mid 20’s Thursday with snow starting around 7am and becoming moderate at times by noon and lasting through the night and into early Friday. With such cold temperatures snow ratios will be quite high around 20:1 and it does not take much snow to make travel difficult quickly on Thursday. Given the recent lack of substantial snow events in the mid south this will likely be a high impact event from Thursday into Friday. Right now qpf around .25 is likely which would result in a 4-7 inch snowfall by noon friday. However changes in the track of the low, snow ratios and moisture advection north will affect snowfall totals. However kids Friday may be a good shot at a snow day with potential poor road conditions.

here is a timing of the system on the 12z gfs , image 2 , image 3 , image 4  total qpf

Notice it continues very cold in the forecast with no sight of freezing after the arctic front passes through the cold will be reinforced through next weekend and even have a shot at sub zero temps next Sunday if we have clear skies and a snowpack in place. The last time we had 10 days ina row of sub 32 temps for highs was in 1989 which was well known for it’s cold.  Right now the last two gfs runs have us breaking this record.

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1 Response to Old Man Winter in Charge

  1. mitchell.gaines673 says:

    latest model data backing off qpf totals and snow totals thursday I still expect a couple of shifts in forecasted precip totals.

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