snow ratios- using the avg mesonet qpf of .15 and snowfall reports of 2-3 inches earlier and looking at the composition of the snow a 15:1 ratio seems reasonable with temps in the 20’s.
banding- snow had become banded in nature with dry slots heading heading our way getting filled back in again moderate snow should continue through 1 am with rates of .5 to 1 inch per hour. It is very possible as the low moves east the bands stay right over the bowling green area and then as the low moves northeast pinwheel back around again along the snow from the second part making it a steadier area tomorrow morning. Right now no major dry slot is expected.
modeling- the gfs had to many deep thunderstorms in the first 6 hrs ,while the nam’s frist 6 hrs were a fairly accurate view of things. I will use a blend of the nam and ruc models for this forecast. The ruc is the rapid update which updates every hour and is ncep’s model page.
forecast- thse models call for an addtional .5 qpf give or take a little overnight and Saturday morning which could be another 7.5 inches of fresh snow. so with that being said will raise totals to 7-14 inches for the Bowling Green which would make this the biggest snow in over 20 years. One point unlike with the 6-10 where I leaned toward the higher end this forecast will lean toward the lower end of the range (7-14).
Enjoy the snow!!
banding set-up to the south of bwg overnight and the back portion of this storm was weaker than expected thus the low end of totals appears to be ok.