If you are fan of some warmer weather or accumulating snow then the first part of this week will not be to your liking. Last Sunday (Feb 21) when it was near 70, this storm coming through tommorow on modeling had a track straight west to east from Texas to the Carolina’s bringing a 6-10 inch snowstorm with cold air in place here. The modeling changed drastically as last week went on because it
1. got a handle of the nor’easter late last week
2. picked up on another week wave in front this system
3. is now showing a stronger high across the upper plains this week
– all of these will serve to keep this next system weaker and much farther to the south for tomorrow, so the model agreement of a 6-10 inch snow 8 days out gfs, euro etc a few days later became a forecast for passing rain and snow showers with snow accumulations in Atlanta.
1. With this system to our south we will still see more overcast skies with a few passing rain or snow showers and no accumulations with temperatures in the 30’s to maybe a 40 on Tuesday. Here is the nws radar to track just how close this system gets with light precipitation. The gfs is closer than the nam now for steady precipitation, based on the 500 mb level maps and the current radar it looks like the gfs with some light qpf in here tomorrow is correct. Wednesday I see low clouds lingering and a north wind developing will keep temperatures once again in the upper 20’s for lows and upper 30’s for highs about 10-15 below normal for this time of year, a passing flurrie still is possible.
2. Warm air advection should start up big time by the end of the week as high pressure moves in and east of the region. 70 possible by next Tuesday!!!!, We will go this time period later this week.
– The middle post this week will be a recap of Meteorological winter which ended Mar1.
– later this week I will further discuss the warmer weather coming by the weekend and give a spring break forecast ( mar 5-14)for those associated with WKU this will include popular spring break spots as well.
– don’t forget the tornado drill Tuesday!!
latest RUC run keeps light snow about 30 miles south of Bowling Green for the Tuesday am rushhour. GFS however still has a period of light snow Tuesday morning. I will update tommorow morning if a period of steady snow makes it this far north.