Summer Drought coming???

First a news headline:

A mix of heavy snows melting and several hvy rain producing nor-Easters has led to a epic flood in New England this is worst flood since 1939 for Rhode Island.

While for us here in Kentucky we have had several months in a row of below normal precipitation and a deficit has developed. This coupled with an expected transition to la-nina by late summer lead to the likelihood of a drought forming this summer across Kentucky. This transition from el-nino to la-nina can be compared to the summers of 1999 and 2007 when moderate to strong el-ninos in the wintertime shifted to la-ninas by late summer. A drought would also mean a hot summer overall. This conclusion does not match up with the climate prediction center which has an equal chances forecast this summer, which is it may be colder or warmer than normal.

Bowling Green -5.78 inches

Lexington -5.01 inches

 Louisville -4.73 inches

Jackson -1.55 inches

London -2.51 inches

US Drought Monitor, March 23, 2010

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