1. The summer theme hot with severe storms has continued over the last week while I was away. So far this August has lived up to the summer outlook as being very hot.
2. Today we have a cool frontal passage through the region but the instability and energy for the atmosphere to work with is not as great as yesterday so even with the formation of scattered storms along the front I’m not expecting any widespread severe storms. However with increased low level lapse rates a few storms may be able to generate gusty winds. Highs should be able to get into 90′s once again.
3. Monday and Tuesday the front moves just to the south of the region taking down our storm chances to just isolated highs will still be in the low 90’s with the main surge of cooler air to our northeast. lows will range from the mid 60′s to low 70′s. Heat index values below 100 vs the 105-110 we’ve had this past week.
4. Wednesday a disturbance should travel along the old frontal boundary from the plains into the northeast. Both the gfs and euro models bring several rounds of thunderstorms Wednesday, increasing the storm chances to likely in this forecast. This also means we have a chance not to hit 90 on Wednesday as well.
GFS for Wed pm
5. By Thursday and Friday we have another frontal boundary coming southeast into the region along with our old friend tropical depression 5. With the flow becoming southerly again we’ll be in the low to mid 90′s for highs with the potential for more storms. Dewpoints and lows should be back in the 70′s as well. My thinking is TD 5 should reform over warm gulf waters with little shear in the next 48 hours as represented by the NAM and WKU’s WRF model. Right now a path just south of the LA coastline with a TS classification is my thinking with the region seeing moisture from this Thu-Fri.
NHC Sat image of TD 5 reformation
NHC thoughts
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE…IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IT COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY EARLY
MONDAY…WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.