Yesterday’s squall line dropped 0.11 inches of rain at the WKU Farm with a maximum wind gust of 27.5 miles per hour. While certainly not the most impressive total, this was the first time in nearly two weeks that a single event brought Bowling Green more than a tenth of an inch of rain. While this helped a little bit, Bowling Green is still substantially below the average rainfall for the month of September.
Typically, Bowling Green receives 4.13 inches of rain in an average September. This September, however, we have only received 1.41 inches. This lines up with the moderate La Nina that is currently occuring, which typically brings warmer and drier conditions to the southeastern U.S. That said, now that the blocking pattern has broken down, what is the likelihood of some of this deficit being made-up?
While neither the GFS or the NAM explicitly calls for much precipitation over the course of the next few days, the National Weather Service in Louisville has included a 50% chance of rain for Monday, with accumulations between a tenth and a quarter of an inch. These chances hinge on the development of a high amplitude trough over the Eastern U.S. The forecast precipitation areas in the models have been trending west, making it more and more likely that we should see some rain.