storm recap, winter viewpoints and thoughts on the next few days

Overall around 2 inches of snow fell in Warren county with higher amounts just to our southwest and east of around 4 where the heavier bands set-up. I have seen no totals which confirm the 3-5 the NWS has  for Warren county.  This was the hardest forecast of the season in my view with the exception of the Christmas eve snow. Both of these events relied on mesocale banding to produce the snowfall accumulations which is what the modeling used in meteorology can’t pinpoint. Also the changeover time was a challenge but occurred at the right time for the expected accumulations. The warm and wet ground may have held accumulations down a touch as well. Tonight there may still be some black ice from the moisture left over with lows in the 20’s overnight.

1. I think Thursday features some sunshine with increasing clouds late as a clipper system passes to the north. An interesting battle tomorrow between WAA ahead of a clipper and a snowcover for temperatures. For now I think highs reach the mid 30’s during the day then temperatures are steady Thursday night. By Friday morning with a clipper passing well to the north a few sprinkles or flurries could fall early. This clipper will track north of us like a typical clipper and bring the light accumulation of snows to Ohio and northeast KY.

2. The weekend should be seasonable and dry. Thought some modeling brings some rain close on Sunday I don’t see that occurring.  

3. Another system forms in the southern plains with a clash between cold arctic air moving in and some southerly flow ahead of the low.  In fact the ECMWF is showing signs the typical la-nina SE ridge appears and sends a storm into the great lakes bringing a nice warm-up and rain. The GFS is zonal with an arctic air intrusion by Monday with any storm suppressed along the gulf coast. Neither solution will likely be correct the GFS tends to overdo arctic air intrusions and keep storm tracks to far south while the ECMWF is known for holding back energy to much over the west with over amplifies the trough/ ridge pattern. For now thinking a low tracks from Texas into the region then transfers energy to the east coast This track usually means a sloppy mix for the mid-south.

– Overall this winter BWG has recorded just over 15 inches of snow. this is already 150% of normal for the season. My winter forecast for Bowling Green featured about 50% of normal of snow. The main reason for the bust  is the unexpected teleconnectionpattern of a negative AO for over a month of the winter and a positive PNA is recent weeks. Both of these promoted a eastern trough, cold and snowy instead of the typical la-nina storm track warm and west of us. As for snowfall the remainder of the winter we have a shot early next week some arctic air follows then maybe another chance around the 10th before a warm-up begins to a more typical la-nina pattern. We have a shot at 200% of normal snowfall but it’s been an easy ride to 150% expect the last 50% to be rougher.


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