Strong Storms Possible

With a decent ridge in place over the Southeastern CONUS and a deep positively-tilted long wave trough axis over the Western CONUS, today looks very mild once again.  Ridging over the Southeastern CONUS similar to what is in place currently could likely be a recurring pattern based on what the forecast models suggest—the GFS in particular.  If that is indeed the case, Thanksgiving week could be rather mild.  This pattern also brings with it regular rain chances to the Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and points northward as well, with the Southeastern CONUS remaining relatively dry.

Today, however, the Storm Prediction Center has felt the need to issue a Slight Risk for severe weather for The Mid South and The Ohio Valley, much of Indiana and Ohio as well.

The main threat for the Mid South today will be from high winds, with a very low end tornado threat in place as well.  The main threat for tornadoes is up in Indiana as well where the wind shear will be at its strongest, and winds will likely be backed at the surface as well.

Currently there is a cloud deck at about 850mb as the moisture is very rich at that level right now.  There is a chance that the cloud deck will clear out toward mid to late morning and allow for some insolation.  In general, the storm mode for today looks like more linear, based on the latest RUC Sounding.

The sounding itself is not the most ideal, as there is a rather robust cap from 700mb up to 500mb.  However, that is expected to erode significantly by the afternoon hours.

What is also clear from both soundings is saturation at or just below 850mb, suggesting a cloud deck in place throughout the day.  This will definitely limit diurnal heating from the sun, which could prove to limit severe potential; however, the dynamics in place are rather impressive.  The wind shear is in place.

The current RUC Hodograph suggests linear storm mode for today, as does the forecast hodograph at 19Z by the RUC.  Winds at the surface should remain mainly out of the south and veering with height, today.

In conclusion, the cloud cover for today could prove to be an inhibiting factor to establish any significant surface based CAPE; however the dynamics and shear in place are far too impressive to ignore. If any severe weather does occur today, it will very likely be more dynamically driven.





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