Cold Start to a Gorgeous Day, Rain Chances This Week?

The first weekend of fall brought with it fall like weather.  Saturday and Sunday brought beautifully sunny skies with temperatures falling from high near 80 on Saturday to a high of only 68 on Sunday behind the cold front.  Overnight lows took a dive as well falling to 37 this morning at the Warren Co mesonet site as a result of clear skies and calm winds.  Temperatures will be rebounding throughout the first part of this week however.  The trough that has brought the cool temperatures will be retreating to the north which will allow temperatures to begin warming back up throughout the week.  After a very nice day in the low 70s today, 80s will return to south-central Kentucky for highs by Tuesday.

Tuesday Surface NAM

The NAM surface pressure/winds/temperature forecast for 4 pm Tuesday with analyzed fronts. Green arrows indicate moist air coming to the Ohio Valley from the Gulf of Mexico.

The high pressure system that is currently centered directly over Kentucky will be sliding southeastward.  The position of the high pressure system by Tuesday and a weak cold front from the Great Lakes to the Midwest will create a strong low-level jet which will bring in warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.  Winds could be quite blustery Tuesday, blowing out of the south-southwest from 15 to 20 mph.  As far as any precipitation is concerned, forecast models generally agree that an axis of rainfall will setup just to the south of the cold front.  For us here in southern Kentucky current thinking is that heaviest of the rainfall will remain along and north of the Ohio River.  Still yet, increased clouds and the chance of rain does enter the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Our best chance of rain comes Wednesday afternoon as the washed out front comes ever closer.

QPF Forecast

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s 1-3 Day QPF or quantitative precipitation forecast.

A glance into the late week pattern reveals more of an east-to-west flow which generally spells quite weather for our area; however, a few small disturbances may pass just to our north which will mean slight rain chances through late week.

Daily Forecast:

Monday: Another gorgeous sunny fall day with temperatures warming to a high near 73.  Light southeast to southerly winds from 3 to 8 mph.

Tuesday: After a morning low around 54 temperatures will warm to a high near 83.  Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy at times with a 30% chance of rain.  Winds will be blustery out of the south-southwest from 15 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies early becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a 40% chance of rain.  Lows will be near 63 with an afternoon high around 85.  Southwest winds from 8 to 14 mph.

Thursday: A 20% chance of a shower in the morning before giving way to a partly cloudy day.  Low near 64 and a high around 84.

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